国家产业转型升级示范区建设促进地方发展的影响机制及异质性效应研究

Research on the Influence Mechanism and Heterogeneous Effect of National Industrial Transformation and Upgrading Demonstration Zone Construction on Local Development

摘要:

基于中国特色央地关系视角,首先系统分析了国家产业转型升级示范区建设试点的确立实施过程对地方两阶段发展的影响机制。然后运用2007-2019年270余个地级市面板数据进行匹配筛选，通过合成控制法实证评估了6个典型示范区建设试点城市在经济增长、产业结构升级和科技创新三个层面的政策效应，研究发现：政策实施效应对于不同试点城市具有较强异质性，淄博市、长治市、吉林市属于转型阵痛组，石嘴山市、娄底市属于创新型单一红利组，自贡市属于创新型双重红利组。实证结论经过时间、地区安慰剂以及双重差分法的多重检验后依然成立。

Abstract:

This article is based on the perspective of central-local relations with Chinese characteristics, theoretically analyzes the influence mechanism of the first batch of industrial transformation and upgrading demonstration zone on the local two-stage development. With panel data of more than 270 cities in China from 2007 to 2019，synthetic control method is used to evaluate the policy effect of the construction of six typical industrial transformation and upgrading demonstration zones. The research conclusions are as follows: The effects of the policy are highly heterogeneous for different pilot cities, and can be divided into three categories: painful restructuring group, Including Zibo, Changzhi, Jilin; innovative single bonus group, Including Shizuishan and Loudi; innovative double bonus group, Including Zigong. The empirical findings remained valid after multiple testing by temporal placebo, regional placebo, and difference-in-differences method.