环保产业与制造业协同集聚演化过程中环境规制的作用机制与路径仿真

The Simulation of the mechanism and path of environmental regulation in the Coevolutionary Process of environmental industry and manufacturing industry

摘要:

环保产业与制造业之间的协同集聚是一种具有正向外部性的行业层面的共生关系，且政策敏感性较高。本文基于产业共生演化视角，采用改进的L-V模型描述环保产业与制造业协同集聚和演化过程，将环境规制作为主要影响变量引入模型，刻画和描述环保产业与制造业短期动态演化过程中的路径和特征以及规制因素在这一过程中的作用。研究发现：规制对于制造业会产生一定的抑制作用，同时对环保产业产生较为显著的促进作用，规制对于共生产业对具有转移支付作用，短期内波特假说成立；规制对于环保产业的促进作用具有优势区间，在此区内，规制对于环保产业的促进作用基本达峰，同时对制造业造成的影响处于可接受范围内，过高或过低的规制水平均不利于其激励作用的最大化发挥；目前规制水平已经接近最优规制区间下限，因此可以适当提高规制使其进入最优区间，但在达到最优区间后如果要进一步提高规制水平，需要谨慎权衡环保产业和制造业增长率的变化得失，综合考量才能防止规制水平过犹不及带来的波动性影响。

Abstract:

The collaborative agglomeration between environmental protection industry(EPI) and manufacturing industry is a symbiotic relationship with positive externalities at the industry level, and the relationship is significantly influenced by the policy sensitivity. Based on the perspective of industrial symbiosis evolution, This paper adopts the improved L-V model describing the process of EPI and manufacturing industry agglomeration and evolution. At the same time we descripts the path and characterization of th two industry in short-term dynamic evolution, as well as the role of environmental regulation in the process, with indroducing Environmental regulation into the model as the main influencing variable. The results show that the environmental regulation has a certain inhibitory effect on the manufacturing industry and a significant promoting effect on EPI, and it has a transfer effect on the symbiotic industry, and the Porter hypothesis is valid in the short-term. It is to be specific that the promotion effect of regulation on EPI has a dominant range. In this interval, the promotion effect basically reaches the peak, meanwhile, the impact on manufacturing industry is within the acceptable range. It is not conducive to the maximization of its incentive effect of the regulation level in too high or too low. The present elvel of environmental regulation is close to the optimal interval, and therefore regulation can be appropriately increased to make it enter the optimal interval. However, if we want to further improve the regulation level after reaching the optimal interval, It is necessary to carefully weigh the gains of the growth rate in EPI and the losses in manufacturing industry, and to consider in a comprehensive way in order to prevent the volatility effect of excessive regulation level.