数字经济影响下的制造业集聚:新机制与新证据

Manufacturing Agglomeration Under the Influence of Digital Economy: New Mechanisms and Evidence

摘要:

基于空间集聚是产业布局中的重要典型化事实，为充分发挥数字经济对制造业布局的驱动作用，针对从数字经济催生的新特征角度来分析其对制造业集聚的影响研究缺乏的问题，从理论和实证两个方面研究数字经济对制造业集聚的影响路径。从数字基础设施建设、数字产业发展水平和数字经济发展环境3个维度建立数字经济指标体系，基于我国2011－2019年285个地级及以上城市的面板数据，研究数字经济对制造业集聚的影响效应，并通过中介效应模型检验其内在机制，同时对政策、城市等级和地理区位的异质性影响进行探讨。研究发现：数字经济对制造业集聚存在倒“U”型的非线性影响，这一结论在多种稳健性检验以及内生性处理后依然成立；数字经济可以通过虚拟集聚与人工智能双重路径对制造业集聚产生影响，其中虚拟集聚对制造业集聚的互补效应大于替代效应，人工智能对制造业集聚的作用以集聚力所形成的引力效应为主导；在政策影响异质、城市等级差异以及地理区位区别下，数字经济对制造业集聚的影响呈现出不同的特征。基于研究结论，建议平台企业与制造业企业进一步加深合作，推动制造业“上平台”发展，且不同等级、区位的城市应因时、因地制宜，实行差异化的数字经济管理策略。

Abstract:

Based on the fact that spatial agglomeration is an important typification in industrial layout, in order to give full play to the driving role of digital economy on manufacturing layout, in view of the lack of research on the impact of digital economy on manufacturing agglomeration from the perspective of the new characteristics of digital economy, the impact path of digital economy on manufacturing agglomeration is studied from both theoretical and empirical aspects. The digital economy index system was established from the three dimensions of digital infrastructure construction, digital industry development level and digital economy development environment, and based on the panel data of 285 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2011 to 2019, the impact effect of digital economy on manufacturing agglomeration was studied, and its internal mechanism was tested through the intermediary effect model, and the heterogeneous impact of policy, city level and geographical location was discussed. It is found that the digital economy has an inverted "U" shaped nonlinear impact on manufacturing agglomeration, which is still true after a variety of robustness tests and endogenous treatment. The digital economy can have an impact on manufacturing agglomeration through the dual paths of virtual agglomeration and artificial intelligence, in which the complementary effect of virtual agglomeration on manufacturing agglomeration is greater than the replacement effect, and the role of artificial intelligence on manufacturing agglomeration is dominated by the gravitational effect formed by agglomeration. Under the heterogeneous impact of policy influences, differences in city levels and geographical locations, the impact of digital economy on manufacturing agglomeration presents different characteristics. Based on the research conclusions, it is suggested that platform enterprises and manufacturing enterprises should further deepen cooperation to promote the development of manufacturing "on the platform", and cities of different levels and locations should implement differentiated digital economy management strategies according to time and local conditions.