基于系统动力学的风氢煤耦合系统容量优化配置模型构建及验证分析

Construction and Verification Analysis of Capacity Optimization Allocation Model of Wind-Hydrogen-Coal Coupling System Based on System Dynamics

摘要:

对于具有强耦合性和结构复杂性的风氢煤耦合系统，目前学界仅有少数研究从理论阶段证实其可行性，耦合系统的结构及其在实际中的应用路径也缺乏深入分析。为解决能源富集区新能源消纳能力不足的问题，进一步拓展风电利用途径和规模，运用系统动力学理论，分析影响风电功率的不确定性因素，构建风氢煤耦合系统容量优化配置模型。以我国新疆维吾尔自治区为例，基于2010－2020年的相关数据分析，预测其2021－2030年风氢煤耦合系统的动态演化规律，探讨风氢煤耦合系统在经济和技术上的可行性。进而设计在耦合系统内自建和不自建风电场两种方案，对新疆某风电场应用上述优化模型进行验证。结果表明：风氢煤耦合系统容量优化配置模型能有效解决“弃风限电”问题，实现电能长期储存的目标；按照风氢煤耦合系统容量优化配置指导CH3OH生产，CH3OH生产商自建风电场成本可减少400万元，负荷弃电率下降32.13%；当风电场容量可信度增加至0.26时，耦合系统无需从大电网购电，可通过储氢罐充放配合来保持H2的稳定供应，规划周期内的碳减排收益可达20.48亿元。实证显示，该改进模型是可行的，在考虑碳减排效益情况下风氢煤耦合系统自建风电场更具经济性。

Abstract:

For the wind-hydrogen-coal coupled system with strong coupling and structural complexity, there are only a few studies in the academic community to confirm its feasibility from the theoretical stage, and there is a lack of in-depth analysis of the structure of the coupled system and its application path in practice. In order to solve the problem of insufficient new energy consumption capacity in energy-rich areas and further expand the utilization path and scale of wind power, the system dynamics theory is applied to analyze the uncertainty factors affecting wind power and construct a model for optimizing the capacity allocation of wind-hydrogen-coal coupled system. Taking Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China as an example, based on the analysis of relevant data from 2010 to 2020, the dynamic evolution law of its wind-hydrogen-coal coupling system is predicted for 2021-2030, and the economic and technical feasibility of the wind-hydrogen-coal coupling system is explored. In turn, two scenarios of self-built and non-self-built wind farms within the coupled system are designed, and the application of the above optimization model to a wind farm in Xinjiang is verified. The results show that the wind-hydrogen-coal coupling system capacity optimization model can effectively solve the problem of "wind abandonment and power limitation" and achieve the goal of long-term storage of electric energy. According to the wind-hydrogen-coal coupling system capacity optimization to guide the production of methanol, the cost of the methanol producer's self-built wind farm can be reduced by 4 million yuan, and the load abandonment rate can be reduced by 32.13%. When the wind farm capacity credibility increases to 0.26, the coupling system does not need to purchase power from the grid, and can maintain a stable supply of hydrogen through the hydrogen storage tank charging and discharging coordination, and the carbon emission reduction benefit in the planning cycle can reach 2.048 billion yuan. Empirical evidence shows that the improved model is feasible, and the wind-hydrogen-coal coupling system is more economical for self-built wind farms under the consideration of carbon reduction benefits.