基于Fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM的高技术船舶产业链韧性影响因素研究

Analysis of factors influencing the resilience of high-tech ship industry chain based on Fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM

摘要:

为明晰高技术船舶产业链韧性提升的关键,从预测能力、抵抗能力、恢复能力3个维度,基于文献分析并采用专家访谈法确定高技术船舶产业链韧性的14个影响因素,运用Fuzzy DEMATEL确定其重要程度和因果属性,识别关键影响因素,并利用ISM划分影响因素的层次结构,表征各影响因素的致因属性和层次关系,并从韧性能力的角度分析其对产业链韧性的影响。结果表明：专业化产业集群、上下游产业协同、知识储备、技术创新能力和产业链结构是高技术船舶产业链韧性的关键影响因素,其中知识储备和产业链结构是本质致因；抵抗能力对产业链韧性起最直接作用。

Abstract:

In order to clarify the key to the resilience enhancement of the high-tech ship industry chain, 14 influencing factors of the resilience of the high-tech ship industry chain are identified based on literature analysis and using expert interview method from 3 dimensions of predictive capability, resistance capability and recovery capability, their importance and causal attributes are determined using Fuzzy DEMATEL and key influencing factors are identified. The ISM is used to delineate the hierarchy of influencing factors, characterise the causal attributes and hierarchical relationships of each influencing factor, and analyse their impact on the resilience of the chain from the perspective of resilience capacity. The results show that specialised industry clusters, upstream and downstream industry synergy, knowledge reserve, technological innovation capability and industry chain structure are the key influencing factors of the resilience of high-tech shipbuilding industry chain, among which knowledge reserve and industry chain structure are the essential causal factors; resistance capability plays the most direct role in the resilience of the industry chain.