碳锁定约束下的火力发电转型路径研究

Study on the Transformation Path of Thermal Power Generation under Carbon Lock-in Constraint

摘要:

从“碳锁定”的视角出发，构建电力行业碳解锁的投入产出评价指标体系，基于2011-2020年中国30个省市自治区的面板数据，对电力行业碳解锁效率进行计算与分析。通过静态的Super-SBM模型计算，发现超过90%省份的碳解锁效率未达到前沿水平，表示绝大部分省份难以在保持经济效益的同时进行有序解锁。通过全局Malmquist指数模型进行效率分解和动态分析，得出碳解锁效率与技术发展水平之间存在密切关系，较低的碳解锁水平主要与技术效率发展停滞有关。最后，通过BP神经网络模型拟合了指数与火力发电退出速率之间的关系，为火力发电的低碳转型路径决策提供数据参考。

Abstract:

From the perspective of carbon lock-in, this study constructs an input-output evaluation index system for carbon unlocking in the power industry and analyzes the carbon unlocking efficiency of the power industry based on panel data from 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2011 to 2020. By using the static Super-SBM model, it is found that the carbon unlocking efficiency of over 90% of provinces did not reach the frontier level, indicating that most provinces have difficulty in orderly unlocking while maintaining economic benefits. By using the global Malmquist index model for efficiency decomposition and dynamic analysis, it is concluded that there is a close relationship between carbon unlocking efficiency and technological development level, and the lower carbon unlocking level is mainly related to the stagnation of technological efficiency development. Finally, by using the BP neural network model to fit the relationship between TFP index and the rate of thermal power generation exit, data reference is provided for the decision-making of low-carbon transformation path of thermal power generation.