广东省科技投入与经济增长之间的关联影响及贡献程度分析

HOU Xiao-xing1,ZHOU Ye1,LUO Jun1,Chen Zhi-yao1,CHENG Meng-ting1,ZENG Le-min1(Guangdong R D Center for Technological Economy, Guangdong Guangzhou 510070

摘要:

本研究借鉴相关理论构建向量自回归模型（VAR），以广东在2001-2020年之间的样本数据作为分析对象，对其科技投入与经济增长关系进行实证研究。按照VAR模型分析程序，本研究选取用于表征科技投入与经济增长的4个指标进行了平稳检验、协整检验，能够在科技投入与经济增长间构建起长期、稳定的VAR模型关系。由脉冲响应和方差分解结果分析表明，广东科技投入整体上对区域经济增长呈正向促进作用并且贡献呈现出逐年递增的发展态势，经济增长对科技投入的贡献大于科技投入对经济增长的贡献。基于以上分析，同时考虑广东实际，本研究认为未来应当保持科技投入间的均衡性，为此提出了改进科技经费投入方式方法、突出科技人员培养以及引进、强化科技成果创造以及转化等3项对策建议。

Abstract:

This study builds a vector autoregressive model (VAR) with reference to relevant theories. Taking the sample data of Guangdong from 2001 to 2020 as the analysis object, this study conducts an empirical study on the relationship between science and technology investment and economic growth. According to the analysis procedure of VAR model, four indicators used to characterize scientific and technological investment and economic growth were selected in this study to pass the stability test and cointegration test, and a long-term and stable VAR model relationship was built between scientific and technological investment and economic growth. The results of impulse response and variance decomposition further indicate that Guangdong""s S&T investment on the whole has a positive role in promoting regional economic growth and its contribution is increasing year by year. The contribution of economic growth to S&T investment is greater than that of S&T investment to economic growth. Based on the above analysis, and considering the reality of Guangdong, this study believes that the balance between scientific and technological investment should be maintained in the future. Therefore, three countermeasures and suggestions are proposed, including steadily increasing the scale of scientific and technological investment, strengthening the training of scientific and technological personnel, and introducing, promoting the creation and transformation of scientific and technological achievements.