欠发达城市工业碳排放的时空演变及脱钩效应——以广西14地市为例

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Decoupling Effects of Industrial Carbon Emissions in Underdeveloped Cities: A Case Study of 14 cities in Guangxi

摘要:

探索欠发达城市工业碳排放时空演变及脱钩效应,与发达城市形成对照,有利于认识城市工业碳排放特征规律,引导城市工业碳排放有序脱钩发展。以广西14地市为例,利用2001-2021年城市层面能源消费、工业产品产量等统计数据,核算各地市工业碳排放并分析演变趋势,在此基础上构建工业碳排放Tapio脱钩模型和LMDI分解模型,揭示欠发达城市工业发展与碳排放的脱钩效应及其驱动因素。实证结果表明,广西14地市工业碳排放的时空分布与城市产业结构密切相关,并呈“重点突出、多点发散”演变态势；城市工业碳排放脱钩状态从以扩张连接、负脱钩为主向弱脱钩、强脱钩演化；能源强度下降是促进欠发达城市工业碳排放脱钩发展的关键因素,科技创新效率提升有效推动了基础较好型城市工业碳排放脱钩,而科技创新水平则有助于发展进步型、基础薄弱型城市的工业碳排放脱钩。基于实证结论,提出了推动欠发达城市工业碳排放脱钩发展的政策建议。

Abstract:

Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution and decoupling effects of industrial carbon emissions in underdeveloped cities, and comparing them with developed cities, can shed light on the characteristics and patterns of urban industrial carbon emissions and facilitate their orderly decoupling development. This study calculated the industrial carbon emissions and analyzed their evolution trends in 14 cities in Guangxi Province using 2001-2021 data on city-level energy consumption, industrial product output, and other factors. The Tapio decoupling model and the LMDI decomposition model of industrial carbon emissions were employed to uncover the decoupling effects and driving factors of industrial development and carbon emissions in underdeveloped cities. The empirical results indicate that the spatiotemporal distribution of industrial carbon emissions in the 14 cities in Guangxi Province is highly correlated with the urban industrial structure and exhibits a trend of "key areas with multiple diffusion." The decoupling status of urban industrial carbon emissions has transitioned from primarily experiencing expansion connection and negative decoupling to undergoing weak decoupling and strong decoupling. The reduction in energy intensity plays a pivotal role in advancing the decoupling development of industrial carbon emissions in underdeveloped cities, and boosting technological innovation efficiency effectively drives the decoupling of industrial carbon emissions in cities with a relatively strong foundation. Additionally, the degree of technological innovation is instrumental in decoupling industrial carbon emissions in cities that are making progress or have a weak foundation. The study proposes policy recommendations for promoting the decoupling development of industrial carbon emissions in underdeveloped cities based on the empirical findings.