工业机器人对碳排放强度的影响及其传导机制 ——基于中国制造业的理论与实证分析

The Impact of Industrial Robots on Carbon Emission Intensity and its Transmission Mechanism ——Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on China's Manufacturing Industry

摘要:

制造业是中国实现“双碳”目标的关键一环，而以工业机器人为代表的制造业数智化装备的应用与碳排放之间的关系仍有待明晰。基于2006－2019年中国30个省份的面板数据，通过匹配省级工业机器人数据，将人力资本列为调节变量，从能源效率效应、人工替代效应、产出规模效应3个视角实证检验工业机器人的应用对碳排放强度的影响，并进一步考察了工业机器人应用对碳强度影响的空间效应。研究发现：中国工业机器人的应用存在显著的碳减排效应；工业机器人的应用通过能源使用效率、人工替代、产出规模3种传导机制影响碳排放强度，其中前两者体现的是碳减排效应，后者是碳增排效应；人力资本强化了工业机器人渗透度增加对碳排放强度的抑制作用；工业机器人应用对碳排放强度的抑制作用存在空间溢出效应。为助力“双碳”目标的实现，政府要通过资金和政策支持鼓励制造业企业引入工业机器人，并加大人力资本教育投资，培养和引进工业机器人技术应用高层次创新型人才和高技术技能型人才。

Abstract:

Manufacturing is a key part of China's "double carbon" goal, but the relationship between the application of digital and intelligent equipment in manufacturing, represented by industrial robots, and carbon emissions remains to be clarified. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2019, by matching provincial industrial robot data, human capital is listed as a regulating variable, and the impact of industrial robots on carbon emission intensity is empirically tested from three perspectives: energy efficiency effect, labor substitution effect, and output scale effect. and the spatial effect of industrial robot application on carbon intensity is further examined. The study found that the application of industrial robots in China has a significant carbon emission reduction effect; the application of industrial robots affects carbon emission intensity through three transmission mechanisms: energy use efficiency, manual substitution, and output scale, of which the first two reflect carbon emission reduction, the latter is the carbon emission increase effect; human capital strengthens the inhibitory effect of increased penetration of industrial robots on carbon emission intensity; the inhibitory effect of industrial robot application on carbon emission intensity has a spatial spillover effect. In order to help achieve the "double carbon" goal, the government should encourage manufacturing companies to introduce industrial robots through financial and policy supports, increase investment in human capital education, cultivate and introduce high-level innovative talents and high-tech skills of Industrial robot technology application.