高技术产业发展对过早去工业化的阻滞效应及其机制研究*

On the Blocking Effect and Blocking Mechanism of High-tech Industry Development on Premature Deindustrialization

摘要:

本文利用带有“倒U”曲线的调节效应检验模型,构造转移份额工具变量(Bartik IV)克服内生性问题,采用省级面板数据考察了高技术产业发展对过早去工业化的阻滞效应。研究发现,高技术产业发展能够使得工业比重随人均GDP变化“倒U”型曲线的转折点右移,并使得其变得更为平缓,说明对过早去工业化的阻滞效应。机制检验研究发现,高技术产业发展能够通过抑制经济“脱实向虚”和经济结构“逆库兹涅兹化”阻滞过早去工业化。本文的研究为推动高技术产业发展促进制造业转型升级,夯实实体经济在发展中的支撑作用,阻滞过早去工业化提供了实证支持。

Abstract:

Using the moderation effect model with “inverted U” curve and using tool variable constructed with shift-share method to overcome endogenous problem, this study investigates the blocking effect of high-tech industry development on premature deindustrialization by province panel data. The analysis results show that the development of high-tech industry can make the turning point of the “inverted U” curve of the industrial proportion changing with per capita GDP move to the right and make the curve smoother, which shows the blocking effect on premature deindustrialization. Mechanism test research finds that the development of high-tech industry can block premature deindustrialization through restraining trend of financialization and “Inverse Kuznets theory” effects. This study provides empirical support for promoting high-tech industry development to facilitate the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, strengthening the supporting role of the real economy in development, to block premature deindustrialization.