中国农村碳排放强度与乡村振兴协同发展研究

Study on the Synergistic Development of China's Rural Carbon Emission Intensity and Rural Revitalization

摘要:

协同推进“双碳”目标和乡村振兴战略是推进农业农村减排固碳与绿色低碳转型发展的重要举措。本文基于对2010-2020年中国农村碳排放强度与乡村振兴发展水平的测算,探究两者耦合协调度并进行空间自相关分析,借助PVAR模型佐证农村碳排放强度与乡村振兴互动效应。研究结果表明,我国农村碳排放强度波动下降,乡村振兴发展水平持续上升,但区域间发展差异性较大。两者耦合协调度稳步提升,从期初的中等协调转为优质协调状态,空间上存在正相关性,主要表现为高高集聚和低低集聚两种分布类型,且集聚程度均逐年减弱。农村碳排放强度与乡村振兴存在长期稳定的协整关系,农村碳排放强度与乡村振兴对自身冲击效应较大,而农村碳排放强度对乡村振兴发展的抑制作用强于乡村振兴对农村碳排放强度的促进作用。

Abstract:

To promote the "double carbon" target and the strategy of rural revitalization is an important measure to promote the development of agricultural and rural areas in terms of carbon reduction and sequestration, as well as green and low-carbon transformation. Based on the measurement of China"s rural carbon emission intensity and the development level of rural revitalization from 2010 to 2020, this paper explores the degree of coordination between the two and conducts spatial autocorrelation analysis, and supports the interactive effect of rural carbon emission intensity and rural revitalization with the help of a PVAR model. The results of the study show that China"s rural carbon emission intensity fluctuates and the development level of rural revitalization continues to rise, but the development varies greatly between regions. The coupling coordination between the two has steadily increased, from medium coordination at the beginning of the period to high quality coordination, and there is a positive spatial correlation, mainly manifested in two types of distribution: high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration, and the degree of agglomeration has been decreasing year by year. There is a long-term stable co-integration relationship between rural carbon emission intensity and rural revitalization, and the impact effect of rural carbon emission intensity and rural revitalization on itself is greater, while the inhibiting effect of rural carbon emission intensity on the development of rural revitalization is stronger than the promoting effect of rural revitalization on rural carbon emission intensity.