多主体对颠覆性技术的采纳行为的动态演化及影响因素：基于演化博弈视角

Dynamic Evolution and Influencing Factors of Multi-Agent Adoption Behavior towards Disruptive Technologies: A Perspective from Evolutionary Game Theory

摘要:

以参与方有限理性和信息不完全为前提,构建以企业、消费者与政府为核心主体对于颠覆性技术采纳行为的演化博弈模型,从而分析三方对于颠覆性技术采纳的稳定策略,并通过MATLAB进行数值仿真模拟,分析验证该模型具体的演化路径,从而探究三方在颠覆性技术采纳行为博弈过程中决定双方最终策略选择的影响因素。结果表明：(1)企业、消费者与政府等三方主体对颠覆性技术产品的初始态度与接纳倾向能影响的博弈系统的演化路径与结果；(2)对于颠覆性技术企业而言,更高的颠覆性技术产品生产占比有助于缩短颠覆性技术采纳周期,并能提高政府对企业提供扶持的期望。对于政府而言,政府对生产颠覆性技术产品的企业补贴将延长技术采纳周期,同时若政府对生产颠覆性技术产品的企业补贴力度过大将会使政府最终放弃补贴,而政府对购买颠覆性技术产品的消费者补助则在技术采纳过程的前中期进行补助效果明显优于后期补助的效果。

Abstract:

Based on the assumptions of bounded rationality and incomplete information among the participants, this study constructs an evolutionary game model of disruptive technology adoption behavior, with enterprises, consumers, and governments as the core entities. The model aims to analyze the stable strategies of the three parties in adopting disruptive technologies. Numerical simulation and MATLAB are employed to analyze and verify the specific evolutionary paths of the model, in order to explore the influencing factors that determine the final strategy choices of the three parties during the game of disruptive technology adoption behavior. The results indicate that: (1) The initial attitudes and adoption tendencies of enterprises, consumers, and governments toward disruptive technology products can influence the evolutionary paths and outcomes of the game system. (2) For disruptive technology companies, a higher proportion of production of disruptive technology products helps to shorten the adoption cycle and increases the government"s expectation of providing support to the enterprises. For the government, subsidies to enterprises that produce disruptive technology products prolong the technology adoption cycle. Moreover, if the government"s subsidies to these enterprises are too excessive, it may lead to the government eventually abandoning the subsidies. On the other hand, government assistance to consumers in purchasing disruptive technology products has a more pronounced effect in the early and middle stages of the technology adoption process compared to later stages.