基于Logit模型的技术供需交易影响因素研究

A Study of The Factors Influencing Technology Supply and Demand Transactions Based on Logit Model

摘要:

将技术供方和专利视为整体，将供需双方是否通过某专利交易视为被解释变量，系统研究技术特征、组织实力和供需方多维邻近关系等对技术交易的影响。基于Logit模型对燃料电池领域专利数据实证研究发现：第一，考虑三维特征建立Logit模型，对交易形成预测的精度高达83.3%；第二，技术特征、组织实力特征、多维邻近特征对技术交易均有显著正向影响；第三，多维邻近特征对技术交易的促进程度远高于其他维度特征，供需双方信任是交易形成的关键因素。最后，从建立高质量技术供需数据库，技术交易信任体系，技术交易网络及交易推荐机制等方面提出对策思考。

Abstract:

By considering the technology supplier and the patent as a whole, and whether the supply and demand sides transaction through a particular patent as the explanatory variables, the impact of technology characteristics, organizational strength and multi-dimensional proximity of the supplier and demand side on technology transactions can be systematically studied. An empirical study of patent data in the fuel cell field based on a logit model found that: (1)The logit model, which takes into account three-dimensional features, has an accuracy of 83.3% in predicting transaction formation; (2)Technological characteristics, organizational strength characteristics and multidimensional proximity characteristics all have a significant positive impact on technology trading; (3)The multidimensional proximity feature facilitates technology transactions to a much greater extent than the other two dimensional features, and trust between supply and demand is the most critical factor in transaction formation. (4)Countermeasures are proposed in terms of establishing a high-quality technology supply and demand database, a technology trading trust system, a technology trading network and a trading recommendation mechanism.