海上风电绿色发展的评价及实现路径——基于DPSIR模型

Evaluation and realization path of green development of offshore wind power with DPSIR model

摘要:

海上风电产业作为发展方式绿色转型和新能源体系构建的契合点之一，其绿色发展的量化评估及实现路径值得探究。本文引入能够体现绿色发展内涵的DPSIR模型，依据驱动力、压力、状态、影响及响应五个维度选取21个评价指标，构建海上风电产业绿色发展的评价指标体系，采取熵值法确定指标权重进行评价；其次运用结构方程模型探究促进海上风电绿色发展的具体路径。结果表明:2007－2021年我国海上风电产业绿色发展水平值呈现快速上升的趋势，绿色发展等级由“低”升“高”；对绿色发展水平贡献度最大的准则层为影响与状态，权重最大的指标依次为海上风电累计装机容量与发电量；路径分析中，“驱动力—压力”、“压力—状态”存在负向作用，政府“响应”对于“驱动力—压力”、“压力—状态”，“状态—影响”路径的调节效应显著。本文研究可为海上风电产业绿色发展的量化评估与策略安排提供参考价值。

Abstract:

As one of the convergent points of green transformation of development mode and construction of new energy system, the quantitative evaluation and realization path of green development of offshore wind power industry are worth exploring. The paper introduces the DPSIR model, which can reflect the connotation of green development, selects 21 evaluation indicators based on five dimensions of driving force, pressure, state, influence and response, constructs the evaluation index system of green development of offshore wind power industry, and adopts the entropy method to determine the index weights for evaluation. Secondly, structural equation model is used to explore the specific path to promote the green development of offshore wind power. The results show that the green development level of China"s offshore wind power industry shows a rapid rising trend from 2007 to 2021, and the green development level rises from "low" to "high"; The criterion layer with the greatest contribution to the level of green development is “impact” and “state”, and the index with the greatest weight is the accumulated installed capacity and power generation of offshore wind power. In path analysis, "driving force－pressure" and "pressure－state" have negative effects, and government “response” has significant moderating effects on "driving force－pressure", "pressure－state" and "state－impact" paths. This study can provide reference value for quantitative evaluation and strategic arrangement of green development of offshore wind power industry.