科技金融政策的绿色发展效应评价

Evaluation on the Green Development Effect of Science and Technology Finance Policy——A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the

摘要:

绿色发展是“十四五”时期中国经济转型的重要趋势,科技金融政策为绿色发展提供了新动力。将“科技和金融结合试点”视为一项准自然试验,运用多期双重差分模型评估科技金融政策试点实施的绿色发展效应及作用路径。研究发现,科技金融政策能够显著提升试点城市绿色发展水平,并且政策效果随时间推移呈“先增加、后减小”的动态特征,在进行一系列稳健性检验后,结论仍然成立。异质性分析表明,对于较高等级城市和东部地区城市来说,科技金融政策对绿色发展的驱动效应更强。机制分析表明,科技金融政策促进绿色发展的路径主要有产业升级效应、技术创新效应和政府支持效应,其中技术创新带来的影响最为有效。结论启示应进一步完善科技金融政策实施细则,结合各地区情况补充差异化的绿色发展任务。

关键词:科技金融;政策评估;绿色发展;多期双重差分模型

Abstract:

Green development is an important trend in China"s economic transformation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and technology and financial policies have provided new impetus for green development. Regarding the "pilot of technology and finance integration" as a quasi-natural experiment, a multi-period double difference model is used to evaluate the green development effect and function path of the pilot implementation of science and technology financial policy. The study found that science and technology financial policies can significantly improve the green development level of pilot cities, and the policy effects show a dynamic characteristic of "increasing first and then decreasing" over time. After a series of robustness tests, the conclusion is still valid. The analysis of heterogeneity shows that for higher-level cities and eastern cities, the green development guiding effect of technology and financial policies is stronger. Mechanism analysis shows that the main pathways for scientific and technological financial policies to promote green development are industrial upgrading effects, technological innovation effects and government support effects, among which technological innovation has the most effective impact. It is suggested that the detailed rules for the implementation of science and technology financial policies should be further improved, and differentiated green development tasks should be supplemented in light of the conditions of various regions.

Key words:technology finance; policy evaluation; green development; multi-period double difference model