高校人文社科“项目制”的绩效评估及逻辑反思——基于联立方程与BP人工神经网络

Performance Evaluation and Logical Reflection on the

摘要:

人文社科研究目前以项目制为主,对于项目制的绩效问题更多集中在微观层面,缺乏宏观实证研究。本文以教育部双一流建设高校为例,构建了一种全新的分析框架,采用联立方程模型进行基本分析,采用BP人工神经网络进行稳健性检验和辅助分析,最后采用贝叶斯向量自回归模型分析变量之间的互动关系。研究结果表明：人文社科项目制的总体绩效不高；研发经费的绩效有待提高；研发人员的绩效水平总体较高；研发人员、研发经费对研究项目影响显著,学术论文的正向反馈明显。最后指出,人文社科项目制需要进行反思和改进,要努力提高研发经费的分配体制,全方位调动广大人文社科工作者的积极性。

关键词:人文社科;项目制;绩效;联立方程;BP人工神经网络

Abstract:

The research of humanities and social sciences is mainly based on the project system. The performance problems of the project system are more concentrated on the micro level, lacking macro empirical research. This article takes the double-first-class construction universities of the ministry of education as an example, and constructs a new analytical framework. It uses a simultaneous equation model for basic analysis, BP artificial neural network for robustness testing and auxiliary analysis, and finally adopts the bayesian vector autoregressive model to analyze the interaction between variables. The research results show that: the overall performance of the humanities and social sciences project system is not high; the performance of R D funding needs to be improved; the performance level of R D personnel is generally high; the impact of R D personnel and R D funding on research projects is significant; Finally, it is pointed out that the humanities and social sciences project system needs reflection and improvement. It is necessary to strive to improve the allocation system of research and development funds and mobilize the enthusiasm of the majority of humanities and social sciences workers.

Key words:humanities and social sciences; project system; performance; simultaneous equations; BP artificial neural network