人工智能技术创新对区域碳排放的影响研究：机制识别与回弹效应

Research on the Impact of AI Technology Innovation on Regional Carbon Emissions: Mechanism Identification and Rebound Effect

摘要:

人工智能技术创新是实现“双碳”目标的关键引擎。文章基于2011—2021年中国30个省份的面板数据多维度实证检验了人工智能技术创新对碳排放强度的影响。结果显示：人工智能技术创新显著降低了碳排放强度，这一结论在进行一系列内生性、稳健性检验后仍然成立。机制分析表明，人工智能技术创新主要通过改进能源效率间接促进了碳减排，产业结构高级化、市场化水平与要素资源错配水平是影响人工智能技术创新能效提升的关键因素。区域异质性分析表明，人工智能技术创新仅在东部地区对碳排放产生了显著的抑制作用，中西部地区并未产生明显的碳减排效应，反而加速了西部地区的碳排放。空间计量分析表明，人工智能技术创新不仅可以降低本地碳排放强度，还可以降低邻近地区的碳排放强度，有助于形成区域绿色创新协调发展的空间格局。另外，人工智能技术创新对碳排放的影响也存在着明显的“回弹”效应。研究结论为助力“双碳”目标提供了可行路径，也为各地政府部门积极谋划推进人工智能技术创新方案提供了新的经验证据。

Abstract:

Artificial intelligence technology innovation is the key engine to achieve the "dual carbon" goal. Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021, this paper examines the impact of AI technology innovation on carbon emission intensity in multiple dimensions. The results show that AI technology innovation significantly reduces carbon emission intensity, which is still true after a series of endogenous and robustness tests. Mechanism analysis shows that AI technology innovation mainly indirectly promotes carbon emission reduction through improving energy efficiency, and the advanced industrial structure, marketization level and factor resource misallocation level are the key factors affecting the energy efficiency improvement of AI technology innovation. The analysis of regional heterogeneity shows that artificial intelligence technology innovation only has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in the eastern region, and the central and western regions do not produce obvious carbon emission reduction effects, but accelerate the carbon emissions in the western region. Spatial econometric analysis shows that AI technology innovation can not only reduce the carbon emission intensity of local but also the carbon emission intensity of neighboring areas, which is conducive to forming a spatial pattern of coordinated development of regional green innovation. In addition, the impact of artificial intelligence technology innovation on carbon emissions also has a significant "rebound" effect. The research conclusion provides a feasible path to help the "dual carbon" goal, and also provides new empirical evidence for local government departments to actively plan and promote artificial intelligence technology innovation solutions.