基于熵值-贝叶斯网络的科技项目揭榜挂帅风险评估研究

Research on risk assessment of enlisting and leading optimal candidates to undertake science and technology projects based on entropy-Bayesian network

摘要:

“揭榜挂帅”对激发社会创新活力具有重要价值,已在国内广泛实施,但科技项目揭榜挂帅过程存在诸多不确定性,容易引发达不到科技攻关预期效果的风险。为此,本研究在专家访谈和实地调研的基础上,构建科技项目揭榜挂帅的风险清单,以及熵值-贝叶斯网络模型对相关风险进行系统评价,为科技项目揭榜挂帅风险管控提供借鉴。研究结果显示,当前科技项目揭榜挂帅风险处于中等水平,5个主要风险源的风险水平由高到低依次是选帅风险、张榜风险、科技攻关风险、设榜风险、评榜奖榜风险。针对重点风险源,建议改进张榜方案,吸引“帅才”揭榜挂帅；完善选帅机制和揭榜模式,激发创新活力；优化项目管理和协同攻关机制,提升创新能力,从而预防和降低相关风险,突破关键核心技术瓶颈。

Abstract:

“Enlisting and leading" is of great value to stimulate the vitality of social innovation and has been widely implemented in China. However, there are many uncertainties in the process of enlisting and leading science and technology projects, which is easy to lead to the risk of failing to achieve the expected effect of science and technology research. Therefore, on the basis of expert interviews and field investigations, this study constructs a list of risks for science and technology project disclosure, and carries out systematic evaluation of related risks with entropy-Bayesian network model, providing references for risk management and control of this type of project disclosure. The research results show that the risk of science and technology project unveiling is at a medium level, and the risk levels of the five main risk sources from high to low are the risk of selecting the chief, the risk of publishing the list, the risk of scientific and technological research, the risk of establishing the list, and the risk of ranking the list. In view of the key risk sources, it is suggested to improve the list scheme to attract "handsome talent" to reveal the list; Improve the selection mechanism and the unveiling mode to stimulate the vitality of innovation; Optimize the project management and collaborative research mechanism, enhance the innovation ability, so as to prevent and reduce related risks, and then successfully break through the key core technical bottlenecks.