基于PVAR模型的科技创新、国际技术溢出与数字经济增长关系实证分析——以粤港澳大湾区为例

Empirical analysis of the relationship between technological innovation, international technology spillover and digital economy growth based on PVAR model--Take the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an exampleZhu Hui1,Ning Zhong2 ,Shen Mengyuan3,Zheng Wenfeng4

摘要:

科技创新驱动是保证经济实现长期可持续增长的重要推动力，也是促进数字经济增长方式转变的关键力量。而数字技术进步具有较强的技能偏向性，以科技创新、国际技术溢出与数字经济增长的相互作用机制作为理论基础提出假设，利用2006-2021年广东省珠三角九市的相关数据描述区域整体情况，构建面板向量自回归PVAR模型、Fisher检验、Kao协整关系检验、方差分解函数和脉冲响应函数等进行实证分析。结果表明：科技创新对国际技术溢出和数字经济增长具有促进作用，数字经济增长和国际技术溢出对科技创新具有明显的正向作用，在考虑科技创新情况、国际技术溢出、数字经济增长三者交互作用的情形下，国际技术溢出和数字经济之间存在一定相互抑制作用。为此，在“双循环”和粤港澳大湾区“一点两地”的全新定位下，政府应加大科技创新投入力度，推进粤港澳大湾区知识产权示范试点建设，推行“双化”协同综合试点创建战略，利用数字要素生产禀赋差异促进区域间产业结构合理化，以国际技术溢出扩散效应带动数字经济高质量发展和科技创新。

关键词:科技创新;国际技术溢出;数字经济;粤港澳大湾区

Abstract:

Science and technology innovation drive is an important driving force to ensure long-term sustainable economic growth, and is also a key force to promote the transformation of the growth mode of digital economy. Digital technological progress has a strong skill bias. Based on the theoretical basis of the interaction mechanism between technological innovation, international technology spillover and digital economic growth, a hypothesis is proposed, and relevant data of nine Pearl River Delta cities in Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2021 are used to describe the overall situation of the region. The panel vector autoregressive PVAR model, Fisher test, Kao cointegration relationship test, variance decomposition function and impulse response function were constructed for empirical analysis. The results show that scientific and technological innovation can promote international technology spillover and digital economy growth, and digital economy growth and international technology spillover have obvious positive effects on scientific and technological innovation. Considering the interaction of scientific and technological innovation, international technology spillover and digital economy growth, there is a certain mutual inhibition between international technology spillover and digital economy. Therefore, under the new positioning of "dual circulation" and "one point, two places" in the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area, the government should increase investment in scientific and technological innovation, promote the construction of intellectual property demonstration pilot projects in the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area, implement the "dual transformation" collaborative comprehensive pilot creation strategy, use the differences in digital factor production endowment to promote the rationalization of regional industrial structure, and use the international technology spillover diffusion effect to drive high-quality development of the digital economy and technological innovation.

Key words:scientific and technological innovation;International technology spillover;Digital economy; Guangdong-hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area