无补贴时代中国可再生能源发展预测分析

Forecast of China's Renewable Energy Development in Subsidy-free Era

摘要:

随着2021年进入无补贴时代,未来中国可再生能源是否能够延续过去的快速发展势头,实现《“十四五”可再生能源发展规划》中的既定目标？针对该问题,采用平均弱化缓冲算子对风电、太阳能发电等非水可再生能源原始数据进行缓冲预处理,消除产业政策带来的冲击扰动,在此基础上对可再生能源消费总量和发电量、风力和太阳能发电量等预测对象采用GM(1,1)模型建模预测。根据预测结果,无论是可再生能源总量目标还是发电目标,均未能实现既定的发展目标。

Abstract:

With entering the era of unsubsidies in 2021, can China"s renewable energy continue the rapid development speed of the past and achieve the goals set in the 14th Five-Year Renewable Energy Plan? In view of this problem, the average weakening buffer operator is used to buffer and preprocess the original data sequence of wind power and solar power generation to eliminate the impact disturbance caused by external factors of industrial policy. On this basis, GM (1,1) model is used to predict total renewable energy consumption and power generation, wind and solar power generation. According to the forecast results, both the total volume target and the power generation target fail to achieve the target.