“双碳”目标建设下城市低碳交通推行与成效 --基于博弈和综合评价视角

Implementation and Effectiveness of Urban Low-carbon Transportation under the "Dual Carbon" Targets Construction --Based on the Perspective of Game Theory and Comprehensive Evaluation

摘要:

“双碳”理念下,低碳化交通是未来城市交通发展的必然选择。研究以低碳交通为背景,以城市低碳交通推行前、后期为节点,构建了以居民信息完备度为界点的政府与居民初期最优均衡的动态博弈和从社会-经济-生态复合系统为指标层的CM-CV组合赋权低碳综合评价体系。并以哈尔滨为例,动态测算了2016-2021年低碳综合效益指数和生态综合指数。结果表明:低碳交通推行初期,无论居民处于何种信息状态,【{积极，不积极},参与】都是最优均衡；低碳化实施后期的所选年间,哈尔滨城市低碳建设各效益指数均呈上升趋势,且社会效益>经济效益>自然效益,自然效益处于潜力发展期。整体上ECI<0.8,仍处于生态建设发展期；分项中,大多指标评价结果小于标准现状值,与处于中等发展水平相一致。最后,模型结果与现状相符,为生态文明建设及交通强国战略背景下的交通低碳化区域建设提供参考。

Abstract:

Under the concept of "dual carbon", low-carbon transportation is the inevitable choice for the development of urban transportation in the future. Taking low-carbon transportation as the background, and taking the pre and post implementation of urban low-carbon transportation as the nodes, this paper constructs the dynamic game of the optimal equilibrium between the government and residents at the initial stage with the residents" information completeness as the boundary point, and the CM-CV combined weighted low-carbon comprehensive evaluation system with the social economic ecological composite system as the index layer. And taking Harbin as an example, the low-carbon comprehensive benefit index and ecological comprehensive index from 2016 to 2021 were dynamically calculated. The results show that: at the initial stage of the implementation of low-carbon transportation, no matter what information state residents are in, [{positive, inactive},participation] is the optimal equilibrium; In the selected years at the later stage of low-carbon implementation, the benefit indexes of low-carbon construction in Harbin showed an upward trend, and the social benefit>economic benefit>natural benefit, and the natural benefit was in the potential development period. On the whole, ECI<0.8, and it is still in the development stage of ecological construction; In the sub items, the evaluation results of most indicators are less than the current value of the standard, which is consistent with the medium level of development. Finally, the results of the model are consistent with the current situation, which provides a reference for the construction of low-carbon transportation regions under the background of ecological civilization construction and transportation power strategy.