农业科技创新、生态效率与农户增收质量的动态关系-基于VAR模型的实证分析

Dynamic relationship between agricultural science and technology innovation, eco-efficiency and the quality of farmers" income increase

摘要:

农户增收与农业科技创新能力之间有着较大的关系，更离不开生态效率的提升，同时农户的增收关乎着社会的进步以及人民生活质量的提升。本文根据2000-2020年间湖南省的时间序列信息，利用面板向量自回归（VAR）模型，采用协整检测、格兰杰检测、方差分解等各种手段对农业科技创新水平、生态效率和农户增收质量间的相关性开展了实证分析。结果显示：农业科技创新与农户增收质量之间存在显著的双向正向关系，表明科技创新在提升农业生产效率和质量的同时，显著促进了农户的经济增长。然而，生态效率与农户增收质量之间的关系在统计上不显著，暗示生态效率的提升在短期内未能显著转化为农户的经济收益。通过脉冲响应和方差分解分析，进一步深化了对农业科技创新、生态效率与农户增收质量之间动态关系的理解。脉冲响应分析揭示，农业科技创新对农户增收质量的影响即时且显著，并随时间而稳定。方差分解分析则表明，在预测农户增收质量时，农业科技创新的作用明显超过生态效率，突出了科技创新在当前农业发展中的核心地位和生态效率作用的长期性及间接性。因此，本研究从长期规划生态效率提升、加强农业科技创新的支持与投资和增强农户生态环保意识等方面提出相应政策建议。

Abstract:

Abstract：There is a greater relationship between farmers' income increase and agricultural science and technology innovation ability, which is even more inseparable from the improvement of ecological efficiency, while farmers' income increase is related to the progress of the society as well as the improvement of people's quality of life. Based on the time series information of Hunan Province during the period of 2000-2020, this paper carries out an empirical analysis of the correlation between the level of agricultural science and technology innovation, ecological efficiency and the quality of income increase of farm households by using the panel vector autoregression (VAR) model, and adopting various means such as cointegration test, Granger test, variance decomposition, and so on. The results show that there is a significant bi-directional positive relationship between agricultural science and technology innovation and the quality of farm household income increase, indicating that science and technology innovation significantly promotes the economic growth of farm households while improving the efficiency and quality of agricultural production. However, the relationship between eco-efficiency and the quality of farm household income increase is statistically insignificant, implying that the improvement of eco-efficiency fails to be significantly transformed into economic gains for farm households in the short term. Impulse response and variance decomposition analyses further deepen the understanding of the dynamic relationship between agricultural science and technology innovation, eco-efficiency and the quality of farm household income increase. Impulse response analysis reveals that the impact of agricultural science and technology innovation on the quality of farm household income increase is immediate and significant, and stable over time. The variance decomposition analysis, on the other hand, shows that the role of agricultural science and technology innovation significantly outweighs that of ecological efficiency in predicting the quality of farm household income increment, highlighting the centrality of science and technology innovation in the current agricultural development and the long-term and indirect nature of the role of ecological efficiency. Therefore, this study proposes corresponding policy recommendations in terms of long-term planning for eco-efficiency improvement, strengthening support and investment in agricultural science and technology innovation, and enhancing farmers' awareness of eco-environmental protection.