基于复杂适应系统的调水工程可持续供应链韧性演化研究

Study on the Resilience Evolution of Sustainable Supply Chain of Water Diversion Project Based on Complex Adaptive System

摘要:

为实现调水工程水资源调度的可持续稳定发展，基于复杂适应系统理论，提出“环境刺激—多主体交互—系统演化”的演化逻辑，并以南水北调中线有限公司为例分析其演化过程。研究发现在环境刺激所带来的信息不确定性驱动下，调水工程可持续供应链韧性系统在个体及供应链层面实现个体适应及多主体交互行为，并以多主体集聚、多主体共生及多主体进化的方式驱动系统迭代更新，以此实现可持续演进。研究发现深层次揭示调水工程可持续供应链韧性提升及演化机制，为调水工程稳定运行提供了实践启示。

Abstract:

In order to realize the sustainable and stable development of water resource scheduling in water transfer project, based on the theory of complex adaptive system, the evolutionary logic of "environmental stimulus-multi-agent interaction - system evolution" is proposed, and its evolution process is analyzed by taking the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project as an example. The study found that driven by the information uncertainty brought by environmental stimulation, the sustainable supply chain resilience system of water diversion project realizes individual adaptation and multi-agent interaction at the individual and supply chain levels, and drives the system iteration and update by multi-agent agglomeration, multi-agent symbiology and multi-agent evolution, so as to achieve sustainable evolution. The research findings reveal the resilience improvement and evolution mechanism of sustainable supply chain of water diversion projects, and provide practical enlightenment for the stable operation of water diversion projects.