新能源汽车对城市空气污染的影响及异质效应

Impact of New Energy Vehicles on Urban Air Pollution and Heterogeneous Effects

摘要:

在新能源汽车发展背景下，为弥补从地市级层面评估新能源汽车发展减缓空气污染的有效性及其区域异质性特征的研究不足，利用2010至2020年覆盖我国286个地级市的大规模样本数据，并将发展规模、产业结构、环境质量、科教水平和交通运输等5个区域特征变量纳入分析框架，结合两阶段回归方法评估新能源汽车对空气污染的影响，通过构建交互项范式进一步探讨区域发展程度的异质效应。结果发现：（1）在工具变量通过内生性、相关性、合格性检验的前提下，发展新能源汽车促进细颗粒物（PM2.5）指数显著减少8.26%。（2）替换工具变量和被解释变量后结果基本一致，验证了回归结果的稳健性。（3）产业结构、环境质量、科教支出和交通运输因素可以推进新能源汽车加速减少PM2.5指数，而人口规模和经济规模因素削弱PM2.5指数的下降幅度。由此提出应建立支持新能源汽车有序发展的政策体系、推进产业变革和环境治理强度以提升科教投入和公共交通能力、提高新能源汽车的清洁发电效率等相关对策建议。

Abstract:

In the context of the development of new energy vehicles, in order to make up for the lack of research on the effectiveness of the development of new energy vehicles in reducing air pollution mitigation at the prefectural level and its regional heterogeneity, using the large-scale sample data covering 286 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2020, and the five regional characteristic variables, including development scale, industrial structure, environmental quality, science and education level and transportation, are included in the analysis framework, combined with the two-stage regression method, the impact of new energy vehicles on air pollution is evaluated, and the heterogeneous effect of regional development degree is further explored by constructing an interaction term paradigm. The findings are as follows: (1)Under the premise that the instrumental variables pass the endogeneity, correlation and qualification tests, the development of new energy vehicles can significantly reduce the PM2.5 index by 8.26%. (2) The results after replacing the instrumental variables and the explained variables are basically consistent, which verified the robustness of the regression results. (3) Industrial structure, environmental quality, science and education expenditure and transportation factors can promote new energy vehicles to accelerate the reduction of PM2.5 index, while population size and economic size factors weaken its decline. Therefore, it is proposed that a policy system should be established to support the orderly development of new energy vehicles, and the intensity of industrial reform and environmental governance should be promoted to improve science and education investment and public transportation capacity, and improve the clean power generation efficiency of new energy vehicles.