国家重大区域发展战略下人工智能发展时空差异及成因识别

Identification of Spatiotemporal Differences and Causes of Artificial Intelligence Development Under National Major Regional Development Strategies

摘要:

通过构建人工智能发展水平综合评价指标体系,在利用全局熵值法测度2010—2020年重大国家战略区域人工智能发展水平的基础上,进一步采用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计、空间马尔科夫链和面板数据固定效应模型对其差距贡献、动态演进趋势和影响因素进行了深入研究。研究结果表明:(1)研究期内,重大国家战略区域的人工智能发展水平均呈现逐年上升态势,但区域发展水平差距较大,阶梯分布特征显著,总体上呈现“东高西低,南高北低”的空间分布格局；(2)区域间人工智能发展水平的相对差异有所减弱,但绝对差异仍然较大,长三角与黄河流域区域间差距最为明显,长三角区域内差距最大,区域间差距是造成总体差距的主要原因；(3)重大国家战略区域人工智能发展水平“极化效应”显著,京津冀、长三角和长江经济带均呈现“两极”分化趋势,黄河流域由“两极”分化逐步强化为“多极”分化,层级结构明显；(4)由于人工智能的空间交互影响和溢出效应,其发展的“马太效应”有所缓解,各等级发展水平向上转移态势明显,但无法实现“跨越式”转移；(5)产业升级、人力资本、创新活跃度、创业活跃度、科技金融发展和对外开放均能够显著促进人工智能发展水平的提升,为人工智能进一步发展提供了可行路径。

Abstract:

By constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system for the level of AI development, based on using the global entropy method to measure the level of AI development in the major national strategic regions from 2010 to 2020, we further adopt the Dagum's Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, spatial Markov chain, and panel data fixed effect model to conduct an in-depth study on the contribution of the gaps, the trend of the dynamic evolution, and the impact of the factors. factors were studied in depth. The results of the study show that: (1) During the study period, the AI development levels of major national strategic regions have shown a year-on-year increase, but the regional development level gap is large, with a significant ladder distribution, generally showing a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the east, low in the west, and high in the south and low in the north"; (2) The relative differences in the level of inter-regional development of AI have weakened, but the absolute differences are still very large. has weakened, but the absolute difference is still large, the Yangtze River Delta and the Yellow River Basin inter-regional gap is the most obvious, the Yangtze River Delta intra-regional gap is the largest, the inter-regional gap is the main reason for the overall gap; (3) The major national strategies for the level of development of AI in the region of the "polarization effect" is significant, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and Yangtze River Economic Belt are all showing a "bipolar" effect. "bipolar" polarization trend, the Yellow River Basin from "bipolar" polarization gradually strengthened to "multi-polar" polarization, the hierarchical structure is obvious; (4) Due to the spatial interaction and spillover effect of AI, the "Matthew effect" of its development has been alleviated, and the upward transfer of the development level of each tier is obvious, but it is not possible to realize the "leapfrog" transfer; (5) Industrial upgrading, human capital, innovation activity, entrepreneurial activity, scientific and technological financial development and opening up to the outside world can significantly promote AI. Opening up to the outside world can significantly promote the improvement of the development level of AI, providing a feasible path for the further development of AI.