数字普惠金融对科技成果转化的影响机制与门槛效应分析

Analysis of the Influence Mechanism and Threshold Effect of Digital Inclusive Finance on the Transformation of Scientific and Technological Achievements

摘要:

文章利用2011—2021年我国省级面板数据，采用固定效应模型、中介效应模型与面板门槛模型等模型实证分析了数字普惠金融对科技成果转化的直接效应、中介效应、异质性以及非线性。研究发现：第一，数字普惠金融会对科技成果转化的直接效应为正，且存在累积递增效应；第二，机制分析表明，数字普惠金融可以通过提高创新参与度和创新产出能力进而促进科技成果转化，而且创新产出能力的中介效应更强；第三，异质性分析表明，在中西部地区，他对科技成果转化的积极效应更强；第四，数字普惠金融对科技成果转化的影响存在显著动态非线性关系，在门槛值之前，存在阻碍作用，只有越过门槛值后才会呈现“边际效应”递增的非线性特征，创新产出能力和创新参与度的非线性调节效应都是积极且显著的，但是创新参与度的调节效应要小于创新产出能力。

Abstract:

The article empirically analyzes the direct effect, mediating effect, heterogeneity, and nonlinearity of digital inclusive finance on the transformation of regional science and technology outcomes using provincial panel data from 2011 to 2021 using fixed-effects model, mediating effect model, and panel threshold model. First, the direct effect of digital inclusive finance on the transformation of scientific and technological achievements is positive and there is a cumulative incremental effect; second, the mechanism analysis shows that digital inclusive finance can promote the transformation of scientific and technological achievements by increasing innovation participation and innovation output capacity, and the mediating effect of innovation output capacity is stronger; third, the heterogeneity analysis shows that in the central and western regions, his positive effect on the transformation of scientific and technological achievements is stronger. Fourth, there is a significant dynamic nonlinear relationship between the impact of digital inclusive finance on the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and there is a hindering effect before the threshold, and the nonlinear characteristic of increasing "marginal effect" only after the threshold is crossed. However, the moderating effect of innovation participation is smaller than that of innovation output capacity.