复杂产品系统研发过程风险研究综述

A Review of Research on Risk in the Development Process of Complex Product Systems

摘要:

复杂产品系统（CoPS）的研发过程具有高度的不确定性和复杂性，涉及诸多风险因素，众多学者针对复杂产品系统研发过程的风险进行研究，以期提高复杂产品系统的研发成功率。在梳理Web of Science、中国知网等数据库的89篇现有文献资料基础上，从风险管理、风险生成和风险传播三个视角对复杂产品系统研发过程的风险研究工作进行归纳。其中，风险管理相关研究最广泛，风险生成相关研究逐渐引起学者的重视，风险传播相关研究从2018年起受到学者的持续关注。当前风险管理研究主要聚焦于单一风险因素的探讨，缺少系统地对CoPS研发过程中的流程或生命周期的风险识别、控制与应对的研究；风险生成研究中对风险因素间的相互作用进行了初步的探索，缺乏对风险耦合产生风险事件机制的深入研究；风险传播研究在一定程度上忽视了风险因素间的动态影响，且相关案例数据的支撑不足。基于此，提出了未来可进一步探讨的研究方向。

Abstract:

The research and development of complex product systems (CoPS) is highly uncertain and complex, involving many risk factors, and many scholars have conducted research on the risk of the research and development of CoPS in order to improve the success rate of the research and development of CoPS. Based on combing 89 existing literature materials from Web of Science, China Knowledge Network and other databases, the research work on the risk of the R&D process of complex product systems is summarised from three perspectives: risk management, risk generation and risk propagation. Among them, risk management-related research is the most extensive, risk generation-related research has gradually attracted the attention of scholars, and risk propagation-related research has received continuous attention from scholars since 2018. Current risk management research mainly focuses on the exploration of single risk factors, and lacks systematic research on the identification, control and response to risks in the process or life cycle of the CoPS R&D process; risk generation research has conducted preliminary exploration of the interactions between risk factors and lacks in-depth research on the mechanism of risk coupling to generate risk events; risk propagation research has, to a certain extent, neglected the dynamic influence between risk factors and is insufficiently supported by relevant case data. Based on this, research directions that can be further explored in the future are proposed.