专利视域下量子信息领域技术会聚及机会预测研究

Research on technology convergence and opportunity prediction in the field of quantum information from the perspective of patents

摘要:

技术会聚展现了某项技术在不同领域交叉和融合的应用现状，利用技术会聚预测能够较好地发现技术发展机会。以量子信息技术为研究对象，基于专利数据，构建共现矩阵，利用共现网络分析展示技术发展现状，选取链路预测中预测精度较高的相似性指标来对潜在技术会聚进行预测。研究发现，不同发展阶段的量子信息技术会聚呈现大致稳定、较小波动的情况。量子信息领域技术会聚整体发展较为平稳，技术共现网络结构逐渐稳固，但是在不同技术领域的发展均衡性仍有待提高。基于分析结果，从政府、技术研发和企业三个层面提出量子信息技术发展的建议。

Abstract:

Technology convergence shows the application status of a certain technology in different fields, and technology development opportunities can be better found by using technology convergence prediction. Taking quantum information technology as the research object, a co-occurrence matrix is constructed based on patent data. The co-occurrence network is used to analyze and display the development status of technology, and the similarity index with high prediction accuracy in link prediction is selected to predict the potential technology convergence. It is found that the convergence of quantum information technology at different stages of development is generally stable with small fluctuations. The overall development of technology convergence in the field of quantum information is relatively stable, and the network structure of technology co-occurrence is gradually stable, but the development balance in different technical fields needs to be improved. Based on the analysis results, suggestions on the development of quantum information technology are put forward from the three levels of government, technology research and development and enterprises.