创新生态系统视角下战略性新兴产业成长仿真研究

Simulation study on the growth of strategic emerging industries from the perspective of the innovation ecosystem

摘要:

战略性新兴产业内部创新要素之间的动态复杂关系尚未得以充分揭示。为进一步分析不同因素对产业成长的影响程度，促进中国的战略性新兴产业在创新生态系统模式下实现高质量发展，基于创新生态系统研究视角，运用系统动力学的研究方法构建战略性新兴产业系统动力学模型，通过有关年鉴和企业财务报表以及政府部门官方网站收集2015－2021年中国新一代信息技术产业相关统计数据，综合运用线性回归法、层次分析法、经验公式法、建立表函数等多种方法建立方程进行仿真模拟分析。结果表明：（1）战略性新兴产业创新生态系统包含5个状态变量、5个速率变量、24个辅助变量及13个常量，其成长动力机制主要包括创新供给子系统、成长需求子系统、环境支撑子系统，各子系统之间相互作用，共同影响产业成长。（2）2015－2021年中国新一代信息技术产业的产值和专利数量模拟数据与实际数据的误差绝对值都在5% 以内，可以比较准确模拟产业成长的实际情况。（3）需求变动、科研经费投入变动、政府财政支出变动是中国新一代信息技术产业成长的关键影响因素，其中政府消费影响因子、居民消费影响因子、R&D资金投入系数、R&D人员投入系数、政府研发投入系数、教育投入系数等对产业成长都具有正向影响，而教育投入系数的影响程度最高，且多种参数变动带来的效果远比单一因素变动的效果更显著。（4）产业增加值、产业增加值占GDP的比重、专利数量、新产品销售收入等这些指标在未来都将呈现较好的增长趋势。据此，得出进一步加大科研经费投入、加快培育技术人才和加强产学研政介合作等相关管理启示。

Abstract:

The dynamic and complex relationship between innovation factors within strategic emerging industries has not been fully revealed. In order to further analyze the influence of different factors on the growth of the industry, and to promote the high-quality development of China's strategic emerging industries under the innovation ecosystem model, a system dynamics model for strategic emerging industries is constructed based on the perspective of innovation ecosystem research, and a system dynamics model for strategic emerging industries is built through the collection of statistics about China's new-generation information technology industry in the period of 2015-2021 from the relevant almanacs and financial statements of the enterprises as well as the official websites of the government departments. -We collect relevant statistical data of China's new generation information technology industry from relevant yearbooks and enterprise financial statements as well as official websites of government departments from 2015 to 2021, and comprehensively use linear regression method, hierarchical analysis method, empirical formula method, establishment of table function and other methods to establish equations to simulate and analyze. The results show that: (1) the innovation ecosystem of strategic emerging industries contains 5 state variables, 5 rate variables, 24 auxiliary variables and 13 constants, and its growth dynamics mechanism mainly includes the innovation supply subsystem, the growth demand subsystem, and the environmental support subsystem, and the subsystems interact with each other and jointly affect the growth of the industry. (2) The error between the simulated data and the actual data of the output value and the number of patents of China's new-generation information technology industry from 2015 to 2021 is within 5%, which can accurately simulate the actual situation of industrial growth. (3) Changes in demand, changes in research funding, and changes in government financial expenditure are the key factors influencing the growth of China's new-generation information technology industry, among which the influence factor of government consumption, the influence factor of residents' consumption, the coefficient of R&D funding, the coefficient of R&D personnel, the coefficient of government R&D investment, and the coefficient of education investment all have a positive effect on the growth of the industry, and the coefficient of education investment has the highest degree of influence. and the effect brought by the change of multiple parameters is far more significant than the effect of the change of a single factor. (4) The value added of industry, the proportion of value added of industry to GDP, the number of patents, the sales revenue of new products and other indicators will show a better growth trend in the future. Accordingly, it is concluded to further increase the investment in scientific research, accelerate the cultivation of technical talents and strengthen the cooperation between industry, academia, research and government.