政府、企业与消费者：颠覆性创新中的三方演化博弈分析*

Government, Enterprise, and Consumer: Game Analysis of Tripartite Evolutionary Game in Disruptive Innovation

摘要:

颠覆性创新需要政府、企业、消费者的共同参与和深度协作。厘清三方主体在颠覆性创新中的博弈关系和决策演化机制是进一步优化颠覆性创新环境、推动企业开展颠覆性创新的关键问题。基于博弈论，构建政府、企业、消费者三方博弈矩阵，综合考量政府、企业、消费者的协同与竞争关系，通过系统分析三方策略选择和博弈系统均衡点，结合数值仿真阐释三方博弈策略演化过程，剖析不同博弈主体在颠覆性创新中的策略选择、演化趋势和稳定条件。研究表明：短期内少量补贴能够刺激企业开展颠覆性创新，但长期性、大力度补贴容易导致企业对公共资源产生依赖，并增加投机风险；政府在支持颠覆性创新上较于企业具有更大的试错空间，但也需要承担补贴带来的财政压力；消费者需求对颠覆性创新具有决定性作用，消费者认可的产品能够对企业决策产生根本性影响。因此，政府应谨慎评估潜在颠覆性创新的机遇和风险，以营造良好创新环境为第一优先事项，充分发挥市场在颠覆性创新中的决定作用。

Abstract:

Disruptive innovation requires the collaborative involvement and deep cooperation of the government, enterprises, and consumers. Clarifying the game relationships and decision evolution mechanisms among these three parties is crucial for optimizing the environment for disruptive innovation and promoting enterprises to engage in such innovations. Based on game theory, this paper constructs a tripartite game matrix involving the government, enterprises, and consumers. It comprehensively considers the cooperative and competitive relationships among these parties, systematically analyzes their strategy choices and the equilibrium points of the game system, and uses numerical simulations to illustrate the evolution process of the game strategies. This analysis examines the strategy choices, evolution trends, and stable conditions of different game participants in disruptive innovation. The study reveals that short-term, small-scale subsidies can stimulate enterprises to undertake disruptive innovation, whereas long-term, substantial subsidies may lead to dependency on public resources and increase speculative risks. The government has a greater trial-and-error space in supporting disruptive innovation compared to enterprises but must also bear the financial pressure of subsidies. Consumer demand plays a decisive role in disruptive innovation, as products recognized by consumers can fundamentally influence enterprise decisions. Therefore, the government should cautiously assess the opportunities and risks of potential disruptive innovations, prioritize creating a favorable innovation environment, and fully leverage the decisive role of the market in disruptive innovation.