我国智能制造装备产业演化——基于ABM模型的研究

Evolution of Intelligent Manufacturing Equipment Industry in China -- Based on ABM Simulation Research

摘要:

面对国外智能制造装备的技术优势与市场优势,我国智能制造装备产业演化规律是否具有特殊性,政府如何高效地促进我国智能制造装备产业演化也亟待明确。本文通过问卷调查收集智能制造装备市场真实数据,基于ABM框架构建国内外智能制造装备企业决策模型与制造企业决策模型,模拟智能制造装备产业演化过程,分析智能制造装备企业数量、市场需求数量和市场需求分布等市场结构核心参量变化特征,并进一步探究不同扶持政策对智能制造装备产业演化的作用效果。研究发现：在产业演化过程中,国产智能制造装备企业数量呈现断崖式下跌特征,市场需求数量经历了“增长-下跌-再增长”三个阶段,市场需求在空间上呈现出“分散-集聚-扩散”现象；从扶持力度看,文中的扶持政策产生的市场需求增长率随着扶持力度的增大而减小；从扶持策略看,政府可以对缺乏技术领先企业的智能制造装备产业采取效率导向型策略,对有部分技术领先企业的智能制造装备产业采取效应导向型策略,对有龙头企业的智能制造装备产业采取龙头导向型策略。

Abstract:

In the face of the technological advantages and market advantages of foreign intelligent manufacturing equipment, whether the evolution law of China"s intelligent manufacturing equipment industry is special, and how the government can effectively promote the evolution of China"s intelligent manufacturing equipment industry needs to be clarified. This paper collects real data of intelligent manufacturing equipment market through questionnaire survey, constructs decision-making models of intelligent manufacturing equipment enterprises at home and abroad and manufacturing enterprises based on ABM framework, simulates the evolution process of intelligent manufacturing equipment industry, and analyzes the changing characteristics of core parameters of intelligent manufacturing equipment market structure such as the number of intelligent manufacturing equipment enterprises, the number of market demand and the distribution of market demand. And further explore the effect of different support policies on the evolution of intelligent manufacturing equipment industry. The results show that: in the process of industrial evolution, the number of domestic intelligent manufacturing equipment enterprises shows a cliff-like decline, and the number of market demand has experienced three stages of "growth - decline - re-growth", and the market demand shows a phenomenon of "dispersion - agglomeration - diffusion" in space. From the point of view of support intensity, the growth rate of market demand generated by support policies decreases with the increase of support intensity. From the perspective of support strategies, the government can adopt efficiency-oriented strategies for the intelligent manufacturing equipment industry that lacks leading technology enterprises, adopt effect-oriented strategies for the intelligent manufacturing equipment industry that has some leading technology enterprises, and adopt leader-oriented strategies for the intelligent manufacturing equipment industry that has leading enterprises.