数字技术对服务业生产率的影响 ——基于规模经济重塑与结构现代化转型的中介效应研究

The Impact of Digital Technology on Service Industry Productivity: Based on the Intermediary Effect of Reshaping of Scale Economies and Structural Modernization Transformation

摘要:

数字技术为化解服务业“成本病”问题提供新契机。鉴于现有研究未能从规模经济效应和结构现代化效应剖析数字技术对服务业生产率的影响机制，因此使用联合国贸易和发展会议（UNCTAD）提供的信息和通信技术（ICT）指数表示数字技术发展水平，以服务贸易水平刻画规模经济、中高技术服务业出口额占服务出口总额的比重表示服务业的结构现代化程度，基于世界银行数据库中2009－2021年176个经济体的跨国面板数据，利用固定效应模型和中介效应模型研究数字技术对服务业生产率的影响及作用机制，并对高收入经济体和中低收入经济体进行差异实证分析。结果发现：数字技术能够显著提升服务业生产率，规模经济重塑效应和结构现代化转型效应在其中起中介效应；数字技术显著提升高收入经济体的服务业生产率，而对中低收入经济体的影响不显著，可能是因为中低收入经济体并未充分发展数字技术，其数字技术的发展规模和程度未能有效作用于其服务业。为此，应着力发展数字技术，发挥数字技术规模经济效应与结构现代化效应，促进数字技术与服务业的多场景融合，强化数字技术对服务业的渗透性。

Abstract:

Digital technology provides new opportunities to resolve the "cost disease" problem in the service industry. In view of the fact that the analysis of the impact mechanism of digital technology on service industry productivity from the perspective of economies of scale and structural modernization effects is lacking, thus, using the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) index provided by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), depicting economies of scale by the level of service trade, while indicating the degree of structural modernization of the service industry by the proportion of the export of high-tech services in the total export of services, this paper uses fixed effect models and intermediary effect models, based on cross-national panel data of 176 economies from 2009 to 2021 from the World Bank database, to test the impact and its mechanism of service industry productivity. Also, an empirical analysis is conducted of differences between high-income economies and low- and middle-income economies. The results find that: digital technology significantly improves the productivity of the service industry, with the reshaping effect of economies of scale and the transformation effect of structural modernization serving as mediating roles; digital technology can significantly improve the productivity of the service industry in high-income economies, while its impact on low- and middle-income economies is not significant. This is possibly caused by the less developed technology in low- and middle-income economies, and the scale and extent of digital technology development fails to take effect. To this end, efforts should be made to develop digital technology, give full play to the economies of scale and structural modernization effects of digital technology, promote the multi-scenario integration of digital technology and the service industry, and strengthen the penetration of digital technology into the service industry.