中国原始创新策源能力的统计测度、区域差距及动态规律

Statistical Measurement, Regional Differences and Dynamic Patterns of China’s Original Innovation Curation Capabilities

摘要:

为准确把握中国原始创新策源能力水平、区域差距和动态规律，聚焦影响原始创新策源能力的重要前置因素——“策源”，以原始创新策源能力内涵为逻辑起点，构建涵盖主体创造、成果产出、基础支撑、环境保障4个维度的原始创新策源能力评价指标体系，利用有关统计年鉴数据，运用CRITIC-TOPSIS法、Dagum基尼系数和核密度估计探测分析中国31个省级行政区2012－2021年的原始创新策源能力。结果表明：中国原始创新策源能力发展取得了明显成效，但仍存在不平衡不充分问题，仅广东、江苏、北京和上海在全维度上得以充分发展，其他多数省份的4个维度出现不同程度偏离；整体原始创新策源能力年均基尼系数为0.221，差距主要来源于区域间差距，其中东部区域内差距最大，中西部区域间差距最小；原始创新策源能力整体呈现先升后降的趋势，其中东部地区内的差距呈先扩大后逐渐缩小趋势，但无极化现象，而中西部地区的绝对差距呈扩大趋势，并存在两极分化苗头。最后从实施差异化的调控策略、提升原始创新策源的空间协同度和保障原始创新策源能力的储备厚度三方面提出建议。

Abstract:

In order to accurately grasp the level, regional differences and dynamic patterns of China's original innovation curation capabilities, focusing on “curation”, an important antecedent factor affecting original innovation curation capabilities, and taking the connotation of original innovation curation capabilities as a logical starting point. We constructed an evaluation index system of original innovation curation capabilities covering four dimensions: creation of main body, output of results, basic support, and environmental guarantee, and analyzed the original innovation curation capabilities of 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2012 to 2021 by using the relevant statistical yearbook data, the CRITIC-TOPSIS method, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and the Kernel density estimation Detection. The results show that the development of China's original innovation curation capabilities has achieved obvious results, but there is still the problem of imbalance and insufficiency, with only Guangdong, Jiangsu, Beijing and Shanghai fully developed in all dimensions, while most other provinces have deviated from the four dimensions to varying degrees; The annual average Gini coefficient of the overall original innovation curation capabilities is 0.221, with the gap mainly originating from inter-regional disparities, with the largest intra-regional gap in the eastern region and the smallest inter-regional gap in the central and western regions; The original innovation curation capabilities as a whole show an upward and then downward trend, in which the gap within the eastern region shows a trend of expanding and then gradually narrowing, but without polarization, while the absolute gap in the central and western regions shows a trend of expanding, and there is an incipient bipolarization. Finally, recommendations are made in terms of implementing differentiated regulation strategies, enhancing the spatial synergy of original innovation curation and guaranteeing the reserve thickness of original innovation curation capabilities.