越位影响下产业结构优化对能源回弹效应的作用研究

Research on the Impact of Industrial Structure Optimization on Energy Rebound Effect Under the Influence of Overstepping

摘要:

中国正处于利用产业结构优化抑制能源回弹效应的攻坚阶段，在产业结构合理化前提下追求产业结构高级化水平的提升成为发挥优化效用根本目标，然而过度追求高级化将导致产业结构优化过程中的越位现象。为解析产业结构优化对能源回弹效应产生作用的理论机制，揭示产业结构优化过程及其对能源回弹效应的作用假设，从合理化和高级化两个维度测度中国30个省份2005－2022年产业结构优化水平，利用基准回归模型验证合理化和高级化对能源回弹效应的抑制作用，并利用动态面板门槛回归模型检验高级化与能源回弹效应之间的非线性关系，分析高级化水平越位提升对抑制作用的影响。进一步地，分析不同区域下非线性关系中门槛值的变化，探究高级化水平越位提升对能源回弹效应作用的区域差异。结果表明：产业结构合理化和高级化对能源回弹效应存在抑制作用，不同合理化水平下的抑制作用存在区间差异，当合理化水平高于门槛值1.395 8时，高级化水平的越位提升会导致产业结构优化对能源回弹效应抑制作用消失。为此，应遵循以合理化为基础的基本原则，从合理化和高级化双重视角提升产业结构优化水平，制定不同区域的针对性产业政策。

Abstract:

China is currently at a critical stage in optimizing its industrial structure to mitigate the energy rebound effect. Under the premise of rationalizing the industrial structure, the fundamental goal of optimization is to pursue the advancement of industrial structure to a higher level. However, excessive industrial structure upgrading will lead to the phenomenon of overstepping in the process of industrial structure optimization. To analyze the theoretical mechanism by which industrial structure optimization affects the energy rebound effect, as well as to elucidate the process of industrial structure optimization and its hypothesized impact on the energy rebound effect, the level of industrial structure optimization in 30 provinces of China from 2005 to 2022 from the dimensions of rationalization level and upgrading level is measured. The inhibitory role of rationalization and upgrading on energy rebound effect is verified by using a benchmark regression model. A dynamic panel threshold regression model is employed to test the nonlinear relationship between upgrading and energy rebound effect, and to reveal the impact of the advancement in industrial structure upgrading overstepping on its inhibitory role. Furthermore, the changes in threshold values of nonlinear relationships in different regions are analyzed, and the regional differences in the role of overstepping the level of industrial structure upgrading on energy rebound effect are explored. The results indicate that the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure both play inhibitory roles on energy rebound effect, and there are interval differences in the inhibitory roles under different levels of rationalization. When the rationalization level exceeds the threshold value of 1.395 8, the overstepping of industrial structure upgrading will negate the inhibitory effect of industrial structure optimization on the energy rebound effect. To address this, the basic principle of rationalization should be followed, enhancing industrial structure optimization from both rationalization and advancement perspectives, and developing targeted industrial policies for different regions.