人工智能的经济效应：研究进展与分析框架

The Economic Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Research Progress and Analytical Framework

摘要:

人工智能定义为通过构造具有一定智能的人工系统，研究如何应用计算机的软硬件来模拟人类某些智能行为的基本理论、方法和技术。新一代人工智能技术引发链式突破，正在加速推动经济发展各领域进行智能化转型升级。为探究人工智能对经济发展的影响效应，对1998－2022年中国知网和Web of Science两大数据库发表的3 314篇中英文文献进行综述和分析，构建人工智能的经济效应理论分析框架，考察人工智能影响经济发展的效应及其路径。结果发现：国外研究强调人工智能的技术与管理研究，而国内研究更注重人工智能对经济与人类的影响；人工智能的经济效应研究热点集中在经济增长、就业、收入分配、创新和贸易等方面。具体影响路径方面，从促进、抑制和非线性视角阐述人工智能的经济增长效应，从就业规模和就业结构视角阐释人工智能的就业效应，从资本与劳动收入份额、收入差距视角分析人工智能的收入分配效应，从企业、产业和制度创新解释人工智能的创新效应，从贸易规模、贸易结构和竞争视角探讨人工智能的贸易效应。建议从人工智能的教育变革效应、城市治理效应和商业效应等方面加强研究。

关键词:人工智能;经济效应;文献综述;知识图谱;研究热点

Abstract:

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the basic theory, method and technology of how to use computer hardware and software to simulate some intelligent behaviors of human beings by constructing artificial systems with certain intelligence. The new generation of AI technology has triggered chain breakthroughs and is accelerating the intelligent transformation and upgrading of all fields of economic development. In order to explore the impact of AI on economic development, this paper reviews and analyzes 3 314 Chinese and English articles published in China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Web of Science from 1998 to 2022. Based on this, a theoretical analysis framework of the economic effect of AI is built, and the effect and path of AI on economic development are tested. The results show that foreign research emphasizes the technology and management research of AI, while domestic research pays more attention to the impact of AI on economy and human beings. The research hotspots of the economic effect of AI include economic growth, employment, income distribution, innovation and trade. In terms of specific impact path, existing studies discuss the economic growth effects of AI from the perspectives of promotion, inhibition, and nonlinearity; the employment effects of AI from the perspectives of employment scale and structure; the income distribution effects of AI from the perspectives of capital and labor income shares and income disparity; the innovation effects through enterprise, industry, and institutional innovation; and the trade effects of AI from the perspectives of trade volume, trade structure, and competition.This paper explores the trade effects of AI from the perspectives of trade scale, trade structure and competition. It is suggested to strengthen the research from the aspects of educational transformation effect, urban governance effect and business effect of AI.

Key words:Artificial Intelligence; Economic Effects; Literature Review; Knowledge Graph;research hotspot