经济政策不确定性对企业创新的影响机制 ——基于风险承担与融资约束的调节作用

The Impact Mechanism of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Innovation: A Moderating Role of Risk-Taking and Financing Constraints

摘要:

经济政策不确定性是影响企业创新的重要外部环境因素，其多变性可能对企业创新实践造成深刻影响。然而，现有研究多聚焦于政策不确定性对创新结果的直接效应，对其内在作用机制及调节因素关注不足。基于沪深A股上市公司面板数据，本文系统考察经济政策不确定性对企业创新的影响，并结合风险承担与融资约束视角揭示其内在机制。研究发现：经济政策不确定性显著抑制企业创新，且对非国有企业和高科技企业的负面影响更为显著。基于调节效应的机制检验进一步表明，主动风险承担意愿的降低、被动风险承担水平的提高以及融资约束的提升均会强化政策不确定性对企业创新的负向影响。区分创新类型进行考察，发现风险承担和融资约束的强化作用对渐进性创新显著，而对突破性性创新并无效果。为应对政策不确定性对企业创新的不利影响，政府应增强政策稳定性与可预测性，完善资本市场建设以缓解融资约束，企业需优化风险管理并积极把握创新机遇以保持竞争优势。

Abstract:

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is a critical external environmental factor influencing corporate innovation, with its variability potentially exerting profound impacts on innovation practices. However, existing studies primarily focus on the direct effects of policy uncertainty on innovation outcomes, with insufficient attention to its underlying mechanisms and moderating factors. Based on panel data from A-share listed companies in China, this study systematically examines the impact of EPU on corporate innovation and explores its internal mechanisms through the perspectives of risk-taking and financing constraints. The findings reveal that EPU significantly inhibits corporate innovation, with more pronounced negative effects on non-state-owned and high-tech enterprises. Mechanism tests with a focus on moderating effects further indicate that reduced proactive risk-taking, increased passive risk-taking, and heightened financing constraints all amplify the negative impact of EPU on corporate innovation. Differentiating between types of innovation, the study finds that the amplifying effects of risk-taking and financing constraints are significant for incremental innovation but not for breakthrough innovation. To mitigate the adverse effects of policy uncertainty on corporate innovation, the government should enhance policy stability and predictability while improving the capital market to alleviate financing constraints. Meanwhile, firms should optimize risk management and proactively seize innovation opportunities to maintain competitive advantages.