基于模糊理论的科技安全风险分析研究

Risk Analysis of Science and Technology SecurityBased on Fuzzy Mathematical Theory

摘要:

大国竞争时代,我国科技安全面临诸多风险挑战。对科技安全风险进行科学、及时、准确的评价,判断现有风险是否满足风险可容忍程度,有利于掌握科技安全整体态势,提升科技安全保障能力。将模糊数学理论应用到科技安全风险分析中,构建科技安全风险模糊控制系统模型。基于触发关系、辐射关系和阻塞关系,梳理归纳我国科技安全影响因素,包括科技环境风险、科技活动风险、科技人才风险和科技成果风险。运用模糊综合评判法,推算科技安全风险的影响程度,以提高科技安全风险评估与管理工作水平。

Abstract:

In the era of great power competition, China's science and technology security faces many risks and challenges. Scientific, timely and accurate evaluation of science and technology security risks and judgment of whether existing risks meet the risk tolerance level are conducive to grasping the overall situation of science and technology security and improving science and technology security assurance capabilities. This paper applies fuzzy mathematics theory to the risk analysis of science and technology security and constructs a fuzzy control system model for science and technology security risk. Based on the triggering relationship, radiation relationship and blocking relationship, the factors affecting China's science and technology security are sorted out and summarized, including science and technology environment risks, science and technology activity risks, science and technology talent risks and science and technology achievement risks. science and technology environment risks include sanctions, trade protectionism, being listed on the US Entity List, and so on;science and technology activity risks include “bottleneck” technology, component supply interruption, raw material supply interruption, and so on; science and technology talent risks include Scientist safety, Restrictions on talent exchange, and so on; science technology achievement risks include Highly cited papers、technology standard, and so on. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to estimate the impact of science and technology security risks, so as to improve the level of science and technology security risk assessment and management. The research results show that the risk level of science and technology safety in China is basic safety.