“双碳”目标下四川省天然气产业低碳发展策略研究——集成系统动力学和清单算法

Research on Low-carbon Development Strategy of Natural Gas Industry in Sichuan province Under "Dual Carbon" Goal: Based on System Dynamics and Inventory Accounting Method

摘要:

以“清洁能源示范省”四川为例,基于“上游开发-中游储运-下游利用”全产业链视角建立天然气产业碳排放清单并研判关键排放源,结合系统动力学模型的动态仿真优势科学研判2021—2030年天然气产业异质性排放轨迹及能源替代减排效应,并立足发电、工业、交通运输、居民生活等关键领域实证探讨天然气“替煤代油”可能性。研究发现,四川省天然气产业碳排放构成中燃料燃烧占据绝对主导地位,其中以工业和居民生活为代表的终端消费单元在规模效应和需求导向共同影响下碳贡献显著,而系统溢散CO2排放主要来源于天然气生产、收集和加工单元的副产品；在基准、宽松低碳政策和严格低碳政策三种情景下天然气产业2021—2030年碳排放量均呈现逐年上升趋势,这主要由于低碳发展新格局下天然气产业的成链集群发展；四川作为全国重要的天然气生产基地,资源禀赋、先进技术、良好市场、政策倾斜等优势为发电、工业、交通运输、居民生活等领域“替煤代油”工作创造良好条件。

Abstract:

Taking Sichuan, a clean energy demonstration province, as an example, this article establishes the carbon emission list of natural gas industry and judges the key emission sources from the perspective of the whole industry chain of upstream development, midstream storage and transportation and downstream utilization. Based on the advantages of dynamic simulation of system dynamics model, the heterogeneous emission trajectory and the emission reduction effect of energy substitution of natural gas industry from 2021 to 2030 are scientifically analyzed. At the same time, the possibility of replacing coal and oil with natural gas is discussed in key areas such as power generation, industry, transportation and resident life. The results show that fuel combustion plays an absolute dominant role in the carbon emission composition of natural gas industry in Sichuan Province. Among them, the terminal consumption units, represented by industry and resident life, contribute significantly to carbon emission under the combined influence of scale effect and demand orientation, while the CO2 emission of system overflow mainly comes from the by-products of natural gas production, collection and processing units. Under the baseline scenario, loose low-carbon policy scenario, and strict low-carbon policy scenario, the carbon emissions of natural gas industry have all shown an upward trend year by year from 2021 to 2030, which is mainly due to the chain and cluster development of natural gas industry under the new low-carbon development pattern. As an important natural gas production base in China, the advantages such as resource endowment, advanced technology, good market and preferential policies in Sichuan province have created favorable conditions for natural gas to replace coal and oil in fields such as power generation, industry, transportation and resident life.