创新激励政策的绿色技术创新效应研究——一个准自然试验的证据

Research on Green Technology Innovation Effect of innovation Policy Incentive： Evidence of a Quasi-natural Experiment

摘要:

自“碳达峰、碳中和”目标提出以来，科技创新发展中的绿色技术创新份额持续上升，引起了许多学者的关注。基于2003-2020年269个地级市数据，以创新城市试点政策为准自然实验，使用交错双重差分法（Staggered-DID）实证分析创新激励政策对绿色技术创新的影响及其内在机制。研究表明，创新激励政策能显著促进绿色技术创新，进一步区分绿色技术创新质量和数量后，这一结果依然显著。考虑政策叠加、安慰剂检验等，上述结论依然成立。异质性分析表明，创新激励影响绿色技术创新的政策效果在东中部地区、大中城市以及营商环境好的地区更为明显。宏观-微观双重视角的机制分析显示，宏观层面加速数字经济进程和金融科技发展，以及微观层面企业规避环保投资成本上升风险，偏向绿色研发投资活动是创新激励政策提升绿色技术创新的传导机制。这一研究对于理解绿色技术创新的政策激励效应，提供了新的思路。

Abstract:

Since the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" was put forward, the share of green technology innovation in the development of scientific and technological innovation has continued to rise, which has attracted the attention of many scholars. Based on the data of 269 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2020, taking innovation city pilot policies as the natural experiment, Staggered-DID method was used to empirically analyze the impact of innovation incentive policies on green technology innovation and its internal mechanism. Research shows that innovation incentive policies can significantly promote green technology innovation, and this result is still significant after further distinguishing the quality and quantity of green technology innovation. Considering policy overlay and placebo test, the above conclusion still holds. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy effect of innovation incentive on green technology innovation is more obvious in eastern and central regions, large and medium-sized cities and regions with good business environment. The mechanism analysis from the macro-micro perspective shows that the transmission mechanism of innovation incentive policies to promote green technology innovation is to accelerate the process of digital economy and the development of financial technology at the macro level, and avoid the risk of rising environmental investment cost and favor green R&D investment activities at the micro level. This study provides a new way to understand the policy incentive effect of green technology innovation.