轨道交通产业创新水平测度及障碍因子诊断

Measurement of Innovation Level in Rail Transit Industry and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors

摘要:

目前我国缺乏对轨道交通产业领域科技创新能力评价的研究以及对该产业科技创新能力评价的国家（推荐）标准，其次客观认识轨道产业创新能力、揭示其各发展阶段的障碍因素是激发轨道交通产业创新活力的前提。本文以Logistic回归模型为基础，从产业规模视角对轨道交通产业发展阶段进行识别划分，并基于轨道交通产业的特点，建立轨道交通产业创新水平评价指标体系，选取2007—2021年我国轨道交通产业各项指标数据，测算分析轨道交通产业创新能力水平及其变化，进而利用障碍度模型估计轨道交通产业不同发展阶段的主要障碍因子，为制定策略提供理论基础。结果表明，在2007—2021年间，我国轨道交通产业发展可划分为形成期（2001—2010）、成长早期（2011—2014）、成长后期（2015—2018）和成熟期（2019—2021）四个阶段。我国轨道交通产业创新水平呈平稳上升态势，随着社会发展，不同发展阶段的主要障碍因子不断变化。

Abstract:

At present, there is a lack of research on the evaluation of scientific and technological innovation capabilities in the field of rail transit industry in China, as well as national (recommended) standards for the evaluation of this industry"s scientific and technological innovation capabilities. Secondly, objectively understanding the innovation capabilities of the rail transit industry and revealing the obstacles in its various development stages are the prerequisites for stimulating the innovation vitality of the rail transit industry. Based on the logistic regression model, this article identifies and divides the development stages of the rail transit industry from the perspective of industry scale. Based on the characteristics of the rail transit industry, an evaluation index system for the innovation level of the rail transit industry is established. Various indicator data of China"s rail transit industry from 2007 to 2021 are selected to calculate and analyze the innovation capacity level and its changes. Then, the obstacle degree model is used to estimate the main obstacle factors of the rail transit industry at different development stages, providing a theoretical basis for formulating strategies. The results indicate that from 2007 to 2021, the development of China"s rail transit industry can be divided into four stages: formation period (2001-2010), early growth period (2011-2014), late growth period (2015-2018), and maturity period (2019-2021). The innovation level of China"s rail transit industry is steadily increasing, and with the development of society, the main obstacles at different stages of development are constantly changing.