中国海洋经济低碳转型评估与影响因素研究 ——基于低碳效率与低碳全要素生产率的双重视角

Research on the evaluation and influencing factors of low-carbon transformation of China 's marine economy： based on the dual perspective of low-carbon efficiency and low-carbon total factor productivity

摘要:

推进海洋经济低碳转型是实现海洋经济增长与碳减排双赢的重要途径，而低碳效率与低碳TFP则是评估低碳转型的两个重要指标。鉴于此，本文采用包含非期望产出的超效率SBM模型及GML指数测算了2005-2019年中国海洋经济的低碳效率和低碳TFP值，然后基于此分别评估了海洋经济低碳转型，并对其影响因素展开了分析。研究发现：①中国海洋经济低碳效率仍处于较低水平，但进步明显；低碳TFP总体呈正增长趋势，技术进步是其主要增长动力。②中国海洋经济低碳转型在时间上呈先趋缓后平稳又加速的上升趋势，空间上呈南高北低态势。③经济发展、海洋产业结构与海洋科技投入能推动中国海洋经济低碳转型，而环境规制强度、对外开放水平与港口活跃度的影响则为负向。

Abstract:

Promoting the low-carbon transformation of Marine economy is an important way to achieve a win-win situation between marine economic growth and carbon emission reduction, while low-carbon efficiency and low-carbon total factor productivity are two important indicators to evaluate the low-carbon transformation. In view of this, this paper measures the low-carbon efficiency and low-carbon TFP of China's marine economy from 2005 to 2019 using the super-efficiency SBM model with undesired output and GML index, and then evaluates the low-carbon transformation of the marine economy based on the low-carbon efficiency and TFP’s results and analyzes their influencing factors. The results show as follows: Firstly, the low-carbon efficiency of China's marine economy is still at a low level, but the progress is obvious. The low-carbon TFP shows a positive growth trend, and technological progress is the main driving force for its growth. Secondly, the low-carbon transformation of China's marine economy shows a trend of slowing down first, then steady and accelerating in time, and a trend of high in the south and low in the north in space. Thirdly, economic development, marine industrial structure and marine science and technology investment can promote the low-carbon transformation of China's marine economy, while the impact of environmental regulation intensity, opening-up level and port activity is negative.