双碳目标下钢铁行业节能与电气化趋势及影响分析

Trend and Impact Analysis of Energy Conservation and Electrification in the Steel Industry under the Target of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality

摘要:

钢铁行业作为中国最大的能源消耗和CO2排放行业之一，对实现“双碳”目标具有重要影响。鉴于节能和电气化是钢铁行业脱碳的关键措施，因此从钢铁行业的全工序视角出发，利用学习曲线模型预测2021－2060年中国钢铁行业工序单位能耗下降趋势，并对应用推广氢冶金技术后，中国钢铁行业的电气化影响和碳排放影响进行评估。结果显示：钢铁行业的烧结、球团、焦炉、高炉、转炉和电炉工序单位能耗呈现单调下降趋势，其中球团和电炉工序下降幅度最大；2021－2060年，中国钢铁能源消耗总量经历先下降、再上升、再下降的趋势，高炉工序的能源消耗占比始终稳定在80%左右；应用氢冶金技术后，钢铁行业对电力的需求将大幅增加，电力消耗量约增长10倍。基于此，提出动态设立钢铁供需单位能耗降低目标，扩大和优化电力基础设施以应对钢铁行业的电力需求激增，推动氢冶金工序针对性的电力需求与电网负载优化策略等建议。

Abstract:

The steel industry, as one of China's largest energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions industries, has a significant impact on achieving the "dual carbon" goals. Energy conservation and electrification are key measures for decarbonization in the steel industry. Therefore, from the perspective of the entire process of the steel industry and based on historical data from 1981 to 2021, the learning curve model is used to predict the downward trend of unit energy consumption in the steel industry from 2021 to 2060. At the same time, the electrification and carbon emissions impacts of the Chinese steel industry after the application and promotion of hydrogen metallurgy technology are evaluated. The empirical results show that the unit energy consumption of sintering, pelletizing, coke oven, blast furnace, converter, and electric furnace processes in the steel industry shows a monotonic downward trend, with the pelletizing and electric furnace processes experiencing the largest decline, fell to 56% and 42% of 2021 levels, respectively. From 2021 to 2060, the total energy consumption of steel in China experienced a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing, will eventually fall to 280 million tons of standard coal in 2060, decrease 50% from 2021. The energy consumption proportion of blast furnace processes has remained stable at around 80%. After the application of hydrogen metallurgy technology, the demand for electricity in the steel industry will significantly increase, with electricity consumption increasing by about 10 times. Based on this, this study proposes to dynamically set the unit energy consumption reduction target of steel supply and demand, expand and optimize the power infrastructure to cope with the surge of power demand in the steel industry, and promote the targeted power demand and grid load optimization strategy of hydrogen metallurgy process.