于晓虹1,徐海燕1,楼文高2

Xiaohong Yu1,Haiyan Xu1,Wengao Lou2

摘要:

对我国各省域碳排放权进行合理估算(分配)和盈亏排放情况进行特性分析,对推进高质量发展和实现“双碳”目标具有重大意义。本文建立由公平、效率等四个原则和人口数量等10个指标构成的省域碳排放权分配指标体系,采集2010-2021年数据,建立基于决策者偏好的动态聚类投影寻踪(DMP-DCPP)模型,完成省域2010-2020年、2021-2030年期间的碳排放权分配。基于在2030年实现碳达峰和碳排放强度下降目标估算得到2021-2030期间碳排放量,分析省域2015-2020、2021-2030年期间碳排放盈亏时空差异特性。研究结果表明:(1)在四大原则中,公平性原则对碳排放权影响最大；(2)10个指标中,人口数量和碳排放历史累积量的权重最大；(3)广东、四川的碳排放权都是最高的,宁夏、天津等都是最少的；内蒙古、山西和河北的超额排放最多,四川、云南的盈余最多；(4)山东、广东和江苏属于高配额高排放,海南等属于低配额低排放；(5)新疆、宁夏在2005-2020期间CEI不降反升；(6)2030年我国能实现碳达峰和CEI下降率目标,但河北等12个省域很难实现。最后,提出了实现“双碳”目标和更合理分配碳排放权的政策和建议。

Abstract:

To reasonably allocate China"s provincial carbon emissions quotas plays a vital role in promoting high-quality development and striving to achieve "dual carbon" target. This article first establishes an assessment index system for provincial carbon emission allocation in China, consisting of four principles, such as fairness and efficiency, and ten indicators, such as population size and GDP. We then collect indicator’s data from 2010 to 2021. The knowledge and opinions (or called the decision-maker preferences, DMP) of experts on carbon emission are included in the constraint conditions, and a dynamic clustering projection pursuit (DCPP) model based on DMP is established to implement the provincial carbon emission allocation. Compared with the actual provincial carbon emissions from 2010 to 2021. Based on the reaching peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and lowering the carbon emissions intensity (CEI) by over 65% by 2030 from its 2005 levels. We thus estimate the GDP growth, the lower CEIs, and the actual carbon emissions in the provinces from 2021 to 2030. We then analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the profit or loss emissions in the provinces from 2010-2020 and 2021-2030. The studied results indicate that: (1) the fairness principle has the most significant impact on the allocation of carbon emission; (2) Among the ten indicators, the population has the highest weight, followed by the historical accumulation of CO2 emissions; (3) Guangdong, Shandong, and Sichuan have the largest carbon emissions allocations, while Ningxia and Tianjin have the lowest. Sichuan and Yunnan have the highest CO2 emissions surplus, while Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Hebei have the largest CO2 emissions excess. (4) Guangdong, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu have higher allocations and emissions, while the eight regions including Chongqing, Hainan, etc., have lower allocations and emissions. (5) Xinjiang and Ningxia are two particular provinces,and their CEIs are rising instead of falling during 2005-2020. (6) Although China can achieve the "dual carbon" target, it is challenge for 10 regions, such as Hebei, Shanxi, etc., to lower CEI by over 65% by 2030 from the 2005 level. Finally, we put forward the corresponding policies and suggestions to implement the “dual carbon” target for the provinces in excess emissions.