制造业碳锁定影响路径分析的犹豫模糊集QCA方法

Hesitation fuzzy set QCA method for carbon lock-in impact path analysis in manufacturing industry

摘要:

探索制造业碳锁定影响路径是准确揭示碳锁定影响机理,明晰碳锁定形成机制,以助力解除制造业碳锁定,推动制造业低碳发展的重要环节。本文针对碳锁定过程因素对结果具有多重并发作用的特点,构建了一种犹豫模糊集QCA(HFsQCA)方法。首先,鉴于研究者对制造业碳锁定中多层级、多维度的影响因素会产生多样性的评估意见,采用犹豫模糊集表征研究者的多种评估信息。其次,考虑到FsQCA方法中一致性和覆盖度对条件和结果的线性加权方式未能体现多因素间系统倍增效应,采用面式聚合形式提出一种新的一致性与覆盖度测度,反映因素间的相互作用与整体性效应。此外,针对制造业碳锁定问题进行了文献梳理总结,遴选出技术、制度、社会行为、产业等诸多影响因素。以中国30个省份为样本研究制造业碳锁定的影响路径,研究得出“技术主导型”“产业主导型”“技术-产业主导型”三种类型下的四条制造业碳锁定形成组态路径；结果表明不同省份呈现出差异化制造业碳锁定路径。并进行稳健性分析,表明结果稳健性较好；且有实际案例作为支撑,证明了所提方法的科学性与合理性。

Abstract:

Exploring the impact path of carbon sequestration in the manufacturing industry is an important link in accurately revealing the mechanism of carbon sequestration, clarifying the formation mechanism of carbon sequestration, and helping to lift carbon sequestration in the manufacturing industry and promote low-carbon development. This article proposes a hesitant fuzzy set QCA (HFsQCA) method to address the multiple concurrent effects of carbon locking process factors on results. Firstly, considering that researchers have diverse evaluation opinions on the multi-level and multi-dimensional influencing factors of carbon locking in the manufacturing industry, hesitant fuzzy sets are used to characterize the researchers' various evaluation information. Secondly, considering that the linear weighting of consistency and coverage on conditions and results in the FsQCA method does not reflect the systematic multiplier effect among multiple factors, a new consistency and coverage measure is proposed using surface aggregation to reflect the interaction and overall effect between factors. In addition, literature review and summary were conducted on the issue of carbon sequestration in the manufacturing industry, selecting various influencing factors such as technology, institutions, social behavior, and industry. Using 30 provinces in China as samples, this study investigates the impact paths of carbon lock-in in the manufacturing industry, and identifies four configuration paths for carbon lock-in formation in the manufacturing industry under three types: technology driven, industry driven, and technology industry driven; The results indicate that different provinces exhibit a carbon lock-in path in the manufacturing industry with differentiated business travel. And conduct robustness analysis, indicating good robustness of the results; And there are actual cases as support, proving the scientific and rational nature of the proposed method.