生态养殖技术采纳意愿影响因素分析 ——基于云南省武定县养鸡场（户）的实证分析

Analysis on the Factors Influencing the Willingness to Adopt Ecological Farming Technology: Empirical Evidence from Chicken Farms and Farmers in Wuding County, Yunnan Province

摘要:

随着人们食品安全与环保意识的提升，生态养殖已成为畜牧业可持续发展的重要方向。本文以生态养殖技术采纳意愿为因变量，采用多元有序Logit回归与Shapley值分解方法，从决策者个人特征、生产经营特征、组织特征、环境特征及认知与预期特征五个层面探讨其影响机制。结果表明：（1）决策者个人特征影响最为显著，且在养殖场中性别效应高于普通农户；（2）生产经营特征中，养鸡收入占家庭收入比重对采纳意愿具有显著正向驱动作用，而饲养年限则显著抑制采纳；（3）组织特征对采纳意愿无显著影响；（4）环境特征方面，政府帮扶或奖励在普通农户中呈负向效应，在养殖场中呈正向效应，同时每年接受技术培训次数与信息获取便利性均能正向促进采纳；（5）认知与预期特征中，技术效益认知与扩大规模意愿显著促进采纳，而风险顾虑起抑制作用，普通农户侧重短期风险与收益，养殖场则更关注长期效益。基于上述发现，本文提出差异化培训宣传、拓展信息渠道、优化政策支持、建立区域推广模式及推动产业链协同发展的策略建议，以期促进生态养殖技术的广泛应用和畜牧业的可持续发展。

Abstract:

With the increasing awareness of food safety and environmental protection, ecological farming has become a key direction for the sustainable development of animal husbandry. This paper takes the willingness to adopt ecological farming technology as the dependent variable and employs an ordered multinomial Logit regression model and Shapley value decomposition to systematically explore its influencing mechanisms from five dimensions: decision-maker characteristics, production and management characteristics, organizational characteristics, environmental characteristics, and cognitive and expectation characteristics. The results indicate that: (1) Decision-maker characteristics have the most significant impact, with gender effects being more pronounced in large-scale farms than in smallholder farmers; (2) Among production and management characteristics, the proportion of poultry farming income in household income has a significant positive effect on adoption willingness, whereas farming experience has a significant negative effect; (3) Organizational characteristics do not show a significant impact on adoption willingness; (4) In terms of environmental characteristics, government subsidies negatively influence adoption willingness among smallholder farmers but positively affect large-scale farms, while the frequency of technical training and ease of information access significantly promote adoption; (5) Regarding cognitive and expectation characteristics, recognition of the economic benefits of ecological farming and the willingness to expand farming scale significantly enhance adoption willingness, whereas risk concerns have an inhibiting effect. Smallholder farmers focus more on short-term risks and returns, while large-scale farms prioritize long-term benefits. Based on these findings, this study proposes policy recommendations such as differentiated training and promotion, expanding information channels, optimizing policy support, establishing regional adoption models, and fostering industrial chain collaboration to facilitate the widespread application of ecological farming technology and promote the sustainable development of animal husbandry.