中国各省份碳配额分配及减排压力分析：基于数据包络分析交叉效率的固定成本分摊模型

Allocation of carbon emission permits in China"s provinces- Based on friendly cross-efficiency FCAM model

摘要:

中国作为世界上最大的能源消费国和碳排放国，如何高效分配碳配额是实现国家节能降碳总体目标的关键问题之一，特别是如何在各省份间合理分配中国碳减排总体任务成为亟需解决的重要问题。以最大化整体交叉效率为目标，构建一种基于数据包络分析交叉效率的固定成本分摊模型。该模型所提出的次级目标规划确保了交叉效率的唯一性，且实现了中国整体碳配额效率以及各省份碳配额效率的最佳匹配。将该模型应用于2030年中国30个省份碳排放权配额分配，进一步通过分配结果与2030年碳排放量预测值的差异来衡量各省份的减排压力。最后，根据减排压力将各省份分为4类地区，其中Ⅰ类省份未面临碳减排压力；Ⅱ类省份暂时处在减排压力的边缘；Ⅲ类省份面临着较小的减排压力；Ⅳ类省份面临较为严峻的减排压力。根据不同类型地区，提出针对性的减排政策建议。

Abstract:

Carbon emission quota allocation serves as the foundation for establishing a carbon trading system. As the world's largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, China faces a critical challenge in efficiently allocating carbon quotas to achieve its overall energy conservation and carbon reduction goals. In particular, the urgent issue lies in how to reasonably distribute the national carbon reduction targets among regions. With the goal of maximizing the overall cross-efficiency, a fixed cost allocation model based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) cross-efficiency was constructed. The sub-target planning proposed by the model ensures the uniqueness of cross-efficiency and achieves the optimal matching of both China’s overall carbon quota efficiency and the carbon quota efficiency of each region. Applying this model to the allocation of carbon emission allowances across 30 regions in China in 2030, and the emission reduction pressure for each region is further assessed by comparing the allocated quotas with the projected carbon emissions for that year. The empirical results show no extremely unreasonable values. Based on emission reduction pressure, the regions were classified into four categories. Regions in Category I face no carbon reduction pressure, while those in Category Ⅱ are on the verge of experiencing such pressure. Category Ⅲ regions encounter moderate pressure, whereas CategoryⅣ regions are under severe pressure to reduce emissions. According to different types of regions, targeted policy recommendations are proposed.