屈莉莉,李妍

Simulation of Shanghai Port's carbon emission reduction path based on system dynamics under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality

摘要:

基于能源消费视角测算上海港碳排放情况,运用LMDI分解法构建上海港碳排放驱动因素分析模型,通过分析碳排放影响因素之间的作用关系与碳减排的政策路径,建立上海港碳排放系统动力学模型,通过调控不同的减排措施,应用情景分析法组合出16种情景对上海港2008-2030年的能源消耗与碳减排效果进行对比分析。研究结果表明:多组合情景比单因素调节情景减排效果更好,若以减排10%为目标,则能源结构调整政策是所有达标情景的公共选项；采用不同的衡量标准,产业结构调整政策的效果不同,这与港口的企业性质相关；基于对预测结果的分析,从港口和政府两个层面对未来上海港低碳绿色发展提出合理建议。

Abstract:

Based on the perspective of energy consumption, the carbon emissions of Shanghai Port are calculated. The LMDI decomposition method is used to construct an analysis model of the driving factors of Shanghai Port"s carbon emissions. By analyzing the relationship between the influencing factors of carbon emissions and the policy path of carbon reduction, a Dynamic Model of Shanghai Port"s carbon emissions system is established. By regulating different emission reduction measures, using scenario analysis method, 16 scenarios were combined to compare and analyze the energy consumption and carbon reduction effects of Shanghai Port from 2008 to 2030. The research results indicate that multi combination scenarios have better emission reduction effects than single factor adjustment scenarios. If the goal is to reduce emissions by 10%, the energy structure adjustment policy is a common option for all compliant scenarios. The effectiveness of industrial structure adjustment policies varies with different measurement standards, which is related to the nature of port enterprises. By analyzing the predicted results, reasonable suggestions are proposed for the future low-carbon and green development of Shanghai Port from both the port and government perspectives.