碳的社会成本再认识及对气候变化管理的启示

The Social Cost of Carbon Re-conceptualized and Implications for Climate Change Management

摘要:

传统气候变化经济学已经得出“减排行动越迟缓，未来成本和代价越大”的结论，新气候变化经济学则将重点放在如何评估气候影响上，因此引入碳社会成本并进行评估就对制定气候变化政策具有重要的意义。本文首先界定了碳的社会成本基本概念以及其主要特点，随后介绍了目前用于碳社会成本评估的综合评估模型进行了介绍，并对影响碳的社会成本的关键指标和要素进行了讨论。可以发现，碳社会成本的政策应用基本上都在发达经济体的政策设计中有一定的体现，显示其还有广阔的应用空间，但是目前在概念的理解和应用，以及如何不断研究和探索降低不确定性等方面还存在一定的挑战，需要进一步加强对概念的理解，以及不断降低及优化评估工作中的参数设定与模型构建，更好服务于相关碳政策的决策。

Abstract:

Traditional climate change economics has concluded that "the slower the action to reduce emissions, the greater the future costs and consequences." In contrast, new climate change economics focuses on how to assess climate impacts, making the introduction and evaluation of the social cost of carbon crucial for formulating climate change policies. This paper first defines the basic concept and main characteristics of the social cost of carbon （SCC）, then introduces the integrated assessment models currently used for evaluating SCC, and discusses the key indicators and factors that influence SCC. It can be found that the policy application of SCC is already reflected in the policy designs of developed economies, indicating its broad potential for application. However, there are still challenges in understanding and applying the concept, as well as in continuously researching and exploring ways to reduce uncertainties. There need to further enhance the understanding of the concepts, as well as to continuously reduce and optimize the parameter setting and model construction in the assessment work, so as to better serve the decision-making of the relevant carbon policies.