基于系统动力学的电-能-碳市场协同效应分析

Analysis of the Synergistic Effects of Electricity-Energy-Carbon Markets Based on System Dynamics

摘要:

碳交易市场和用能权交易市场作为推动电力市场清洁转型的关键政策性市场,两者之间存在着重要的交互关系以及协同效应。当前,中国的用能权市场仍处在发展进程之中,电-能-碳市场的协同效应以及其对发电企业产生的具体影响还未得以清晰明确。有鉴于此,本文深入剖析了电力-用能权-碳市场的运作规则和交互机理,并构建了考虑用能权与碳排放权互认抵消机制的系统动力学模型。研究结果表明,多市场的协同能显著地降低碳排放,对企业提升能效以及投资清洁能源起到激励作用,其中清洁能源发电企业的利润空间可实现大约2.81%的增长；灵活设置互认抵消上限对于优化资源配置以及降低履约成本具有重要意义,在此情况下传统能源发电企业的利润空间会减少4.32%至6.37%。此项研究为深刻理解市场间的协同关系、科学合理的政策制定以及市场参与者的策略调整提供了坚实的理论依据和实证支持。

Abstract:

The carbon trading market and the energy use right trading market, as the key policy markets to promote the clean transformation of the power market, have important interactive relationships and synergistic effects between them. At present, China"s energy use right market is still in the process of development, and the synergistic effect of the electricity-energy-carbon market and its specific impact on power generation enterprises have not yet been clearly defined. In view of this, this paper deeply analyzes the operation rules and interaction mechanism of the power-energy use right-carbon market, and constructs a system dynamics model considering the mutual recognition and offset mechanism of energy use rights and carbon emission rights. The research results show that the synergy of multiple markets can significantly reduce carbon emissions and play an incentive role for enterprises to improve energy efficiency and invest in clean energy, among which the profit margin of clean energy power generation enterprises can achieve an increase of approximately 2.81%; flexibly setting the upper limit of mutual recognition and offset is of great significance for optimizing resource allocation and reducing compliance costs, and in this case the profit margin of traditional energy power generation enterprises will decrease by 4.32% to 6.37%. This research provides a solid theoretical basis and empirical support for a profound understanding of the synergistic relationship between markets, scientific and reasonable policy formulation, and the strategic adjustment of market participants.