绿色低碳技术创新视角下广东省碳排放“真伪脱钩”的城市差异与影响路径

The urban difference and influence path of carbon emission reduction in the perspective of green and low-carbon technology innovation in Guangdong Province

摘要:

长期以来，中国清洁能源占比低，现有能源结构优化空间相对较小，以绿色低碳技术创新实现能源结构转型迫在眉睫，研发绿色科学技术、提高清洁能源比重成为各地区完成“双碳”使命的共识。以2007-2021年广东省21市作为研究对象，采用Tapio和fsQCA方法判断碳减排主要影响因素变化、识别城市“真伪脱钩”及主要驱动路径。结果显示:（1）广东省各城市的脱钩状态呈现以弱脱钩为主，强脱钩和增长负脱钩的现象分布较为零星，整体而言碳排放与经济增长脱钩趋势是积极的。区域异质性来看珠三角地区9个城市间的脱钩状态在时间和空间上表现出一定的波动性；（2）能源结构的低碳化创新是降低碳排放强度的核心动力，“真脱钩”城市在经济发展水平上差异较大，“伪脱钩”城市主要为传统制造业立足城市；（3）组态分析发现，“真脱钩”城市主要分两类:以工业技术绿色化主导的“科技创新型”和以农业技术绿色化为主导的“清洁农业型”，解决能源结构转型过程中路径脆弱性问题，发展新质生产力提升绿色技术创新能力、绿色财政及低碳政策支持、绿色产业发展等是城市实现内源性脱钩，避免落入“脱钩陷阱”的重要举措。

Abstract:

For a long time, the proportion of clean energy in China is low, and there is relatively little space for the optimization of the existing energy structure. It is urgent to transform the energy structure with the innovation of green and low-carbon technologies. The research and development of green science and technology and the increase of the proportion of clean energy have become the consensus of all regions to complete the mission of "two-carbon". Taking 21 cities in Guangdong Province from 2007 to 2021 as the research object, Tapio and fsQCA methods were used to judge the change of the main influencing factors of carbon emission reduction, identify the authenticity and decoupling of cities and the main driving path. The results show that: (1) the decoupling state of individual cities in Guangdong province is mainly weak decoupling, Cities with strong decoupling and negative decoupling of growth are more dispersed, The decoupling state of each city is relatively optimistic, The time and temporal performance of cities in the Pearl River Delta is relatively unstable; (2) Low-carbon innovation of energy structure is the core driving force to reduce carbon emission intensity, "True decoupling" cities differ greatly in the level of economic development, "Pseudo-decoupling" cities are mainly based on the traditional manufacturing industry; (3) In the configuration analysis, "True decoupling" cities are mainly divided into two categories: "scientific and technological innovation" led by green industrial technology and "clean agriculture" led by green agricultural technology, To solve the problem of path vulnerability in the process of energy structure transformation, Developing new quality productivity and improving the capacity of green technology innovation, green financial support, and green industry development are the endogenous decoupling of cities, An important measure to avoid falling into the "decoupling trap".